بهره وری و همبستگی متقابل در بازار سرمایه در طول بحران مالی جهانی: شواهدی از چین

Using one minute high-frequency data of the Shanghai Composite Index (SHCI) and the Shenzhen Composite Index (SZCI) (2007–2008), we employ the detrended fluctuation analysis (DFA) and the detrended cross correlation analysis (DCCA) with rolling window approach to observe the evolution of market efficiency and cross-correlation in pre-crisis and crisis period. Considering the fat-tail distribution of return time series, statistical test based on shuffling method is conducted to verify the null hypothesis of no long-term dependence. Our empirical research displays three main findings. First Shanghai equity market efficiency deteriorated while Shenzhen equity market efficiency improved with the advent of financial crisis. Second the highly positive dependence between SHCI and SZCI varies with time scale. Third financial crisis saw a significant increase of dependence between SHCI and SZCI at shorter time scales but a lack of significant change at longer time scales, providing evidence of contagion and absence of interdependence during crisis.