اثرات مستقیم پول پایه بر تقاضای کل: نظریه و شواهد

Meltzer (The transmission process. Working Paper, Carnegie Mellon University, 1999a) shows that real monetary base growth is a significant determinant of consumption growth in the US, controlling for the short-term real interest rate. In this paper, I show that the same property of base money holds for total output (relative to trend or potential) in both the US and the UK. The standard optimizing IS-LM model cannot account for this result, but I show that it can once the long-term nominal interest rate is included in the money demand function. Because the long-term real rate matters for aggregate demand, the presence of the long-term nominal rate in the money demand function increases the effect of nominal money stock changes on real aggregate demand when prices are sticky.