بازار قهوه، نوسانات اقتصادی و ثبات: یک مدل عدم تعادل موقتی با نواقص بازار سرمایه

This paper develops a two-period disequilibrium model of a small open economy under Keynesian unemployment to analyse the effects of temporary, anticipated, and permanent coffee price shocks. The model includes a government sector that administers a commodity price stabilisation fund, and allows for capital market imperfections. The type of capital market imperfection makes an important difference to the results of the model. In particular, when the government borrows on more favourable terms than individuals, the coffee price stabilisation fund reduces the multiplier effects of temporary and permanent shocks not only in the first, but also in the second period. By contrast, when individuals face an upward-sloping supply of capital curve, the stabilisation fund shifts some of these effects from the first to the second period.