نوسانات اقتصادی و امکان روابط غیر خطی بین متغیرهای اقتصاد کلان برای برزیل

The correctness of the macroeconomic prospective evaluations for planning activities, mainly for capital intensive sectors, such as electricity supply, may represent the key between the success or failure of any kind of money-spending scheme. Macroeconomical results derived from government models exhibit, in general, excessive optimistic growth and do not take into account “natural” fluctuations and other “explicit time-dependent events” found in any economical system. Such “quasi-deterministic” phenomena are derived from non-linear systems properties, like biological and “highly viscous” systems. This paper shows how this kind of “natural” process can be represented by this approach, which embodies two distinct behaviours observed in Brazilian historical data: the systematic capital productivity decline and the oscillatory mechanism in the GDP production. This mathematical model represents one possible mechanism, which explain the macroeconomic variables behaviour. The oscillatory period obtained by this approach is close to that observed historically. For practical prospective purposes, an empirical model is also presented.