تحقیق در مورد پویایی با عقلانیت محدود برای سیستم انرژی اقتصادی کربن بالا و کم کربن

For the energy economic system, a dynamics with bounded rationality is built to describe a decision-making problem that decision-makers select high-carbon energy input and low-carbon energy investment to maximize the weighted utility of consumption and environmental quality in two adjacent periods. The technical level of low-carbon energy development, the weight coefficient, the rate of high-carbon energy pollution on the environment and the environmental quality self-repair coefficient are the major parameters in the model. Stability analysis and numerical simulation are mathematically done for this dynamics. The mathematical analysis shows that decision-makers' focusing on the long-term profits, improving the technology level of low-carbon energy development and reducing pollution rate of high-carbon energy are helpful for the sustainable development of the energy economic system.

Energy is an important factor for economic development and is playing an important role in economic activity. Energy consumption and economic growth have been the focus of our attention over the past decades. Lots of work have been done on the relationship between energy consumption and economic growth (Apergis and Payne, 2009, Chiou-Wei et al., 2008, Ozturk et al., 2010, Sharma, 2010 and Wang et al., 2011), where the main focus is on unidirectional causality in the short-run and bidirectional causality between energy consumption and economic growth in the long-run. Apergis and Payne (2009) think that energy consumption and economic development are interrelated. Wang et al. (2011) also hold that there is a causal relationship among energy consumption, capital and employability in the short- and long-run of the economic growth. Under the trend of global economic integration, energy as an important source of economic growth will play an increasingly important role in the future. Energy and environment are two major factors that restrict economic development. Energy occupies an important position in economic development. However, with the energy consumption increasing, excessive carbon emissions have caused much more damage to the environment. Therefore, humans began to concern not only about their own economic interests but also the relations between the environmental quality and the economic growth. There has been research work on how to conserve energy and reduce carbon emissions with little effect on economic growth (Arrow et al., 1995, Bartz and Kelly, 2008, Nakata, 2004, Orubu and Omotor, 2011 and Soytas and Sari, 2009). Arrow et al. (1995) think that economic growth is not a panacea for improving the environmental quality and the most important is the content of economic growth: the composition of inputs (including environmental resources) and outputs (including waste products). In recent years, researchers have carried out a lot of research work on other economic models with the bounded rationality assumption (Agiza et al., 2001, Ding et al., 2009, Du et al., 2010, Elabbasy et al., 2009 and Zhang et al., 2007). These models assume that the decision-makers do not have full information about the market and make optimal decisions according to the information in a limited number of periods. In this work, it is by the bounded rationality method that we are to study the dynamic process of energy consumption, environmental quality and economic growth. We assume that various periods of decision-makers, possessing bounded rationality, concern mainly with the economic benefits and the environmental quality in the current period (or contemporary) and the next period (or next generation) and make a trade-off between the two periods. In our model, some basic assumptions are followed: an energy economic system is assumed; the energy factor plays a key role in the energy economic system and the economic output is determined by the energy input; with different levels of environmental pollution, the energy resource is divided into high-carbon energy (fossil fuels, like coal, oil, etc.) and low-carbon energy (new energy, as solar, wind, geothermal, etc.); owing to the scarcity of high-carbon energy, social policy-makers must consider high-carbon energy reserve in the economic dynamics; high-carbon energy input has high carbon emissions and will lead to environmental degradation; low-carbon energy input has low carbon emissions (or zero-emissions) and will not affect the environmental quality; the development of low-carbon energy (new energy) needs investment and the accumulation of investment determines the output potential of low-carbon energy; the social policy-makers concern not only about the consumption resulting in the economic output but also the quality of the environment. It is assumed that decision-makers in various periods possess the same rationality (making trade-off between the current period and next period) and make decisions on high-carbon energy extraction and low-carbon energy investment. A strategy dynamics is built to describe such decision-making behaviors period after period (or generation after generation).

In this paper, we have built and studied a dynamics with bounded rationality in the energy economic system. The model is based on the assumption that the decision-maker in each period considers both the present period and the later period and tries to maximize the weighted utilities in the two periods. A corresponding dynamics system is built to describe the scenario that all decision makers do so period after period (generation after generation). After analyzing this dynamic system, we draw the conclusion that all of the parameters such as B (the technical level of low-carbon energy development), the weight coefficient m and μ (the rate of high-carbon energy affection on the environment) have significant influence to the stability of the system. If the weight coefficient to the latter period is properly large, the dynamics with bounded rationality will be asymptotically stable. If more attention is paid to the future profit or higher technology level is utilized in low-carbon energy, the energy economic system may converge in a shorter time and approach a stable state with larger high-carbon energy reserve. High pollution rate of high-carbon energy may lead the system running fast to a state with small high-carbon energy reserve and low investment accumulation in low-carbon energy development. So by this simple model we conclude that, if rational decision-makers (even if with bounded rationality) pay enough attention to the future profit, improve the technology for low-carbon energy development or reduce pollution rate of high-carbon energy, their strategy choice will be conducive to the sustainable development of the energy economic system.