مشوق های اقتصادی مثبت : اقتصاد رفتاری جدید و تحولات اقتصادی موفق

The core hypothesis of this paper is that, despite adverse economic effects of custom, tradition, command economies and their aftermath, implementation of well-considered macroeconomic policies has rapidly generated successful economic transition—and conversely. The hypothesis has been tested for Russia, East Germany, selected countries in sub-Saharan Africa, and in the Western Hemisphere. Key factors of behavioral economics have helped to explain results that are often different from those of neo-classical analysis. It has been shown that relations between the presently evolving global economy and national macroeconomic policies have had fundamental effects on the propensity of economic entities to utilize positive incentives for optimal economic outcomes.

Since the time of Adam Smith, and even earlier, economists have concentrated on analyzing the conditions of economic equilibrium in a given political and economic context. They have also examined the necessary conditions for restoring economic equilibrium. Understandably, until recent years, practically no attention has been paid to the problems of a nation transforming its economy from one politico-economic context to another. The innovation of this paper – in line with the evolutionary approach of behavioral economics – is to examine the recent economic transitions in Russia, East Germany, selected countries in sub-Saharan Africa, and in the Western Hemisphere. The core objectives are to show the relations between the presently evolving global economy, the implementation by a nation of well-founded macroeconomic policies, and the propensity of individual economic entities to utilize positive incentives for optimal economic outcomes. The paper is in three parts. Part I (Section 2) extends the analysis of Theodore W. Schultz and his students on transforming traditional agriculture to modern transition economies. Part II (Section 3) presents the relevant key aspects of the new science of behavioral economics. Part III examines the necessary conditions for successful economic transition.

The analysis and record of economic transitions in Russia and in selected countries of Africa and Latin America have shown that appropriate economic policies had the effect of unleashing positive economic incentives, which generated high and sustained GDP growth rates. While such factors as Communist regimes and their aftermath, ideology, tradition and national character had adverse effects on the transitions, the record indicates that generally they were quite rapidly surmounted by the emergence of robust macroeconomic policies and their successful outcomes. (2) The favorable effects of well-regulated economic policies notwithstanding, the evidence has also shown that, in Russia, the trilemma of a quasi-market, a destructive bureaucracy, and endemic corruption – with an attendant legal structure usually subservient to politics – had the effect of engendering a financial crisis and an economic slowdown. These exceptional events occurred despite the prevalence of generally well-guided macroeconomic policies and extremely high world crude oil and natural gas prices. (3) A corollary of the preceding conclusion is that the widespread tendency in the economics profession, especially among members of the so-called “Chicago School” readily to ascribe economic failures to federal government economic policies – without careful examination of the premises – may at times be mistaken. (4) The economic transitions of Russia, East Germany, and the selected countries in Africa and Latin America strongly suggest that globalization is a two-edged sword. If a country maintains economic policies that are complementary to the prevailing conditions of the global economy, it is likely to benefit via economic leverage, and conversely. The frequent tendency to casting blame on globalization for domestic economic failures has usually been misplaced. For the longer term, the analysis points to the conclusion that every country must globalize its economy if it is to attain high and sustained GDP growth rates. But the analysis and experience also indicate the need for greater stabilization of the global economy, which would be facilitated not only by fundamental reforms of existing international economic institutions, but also by reductions in the developed world of agricultural subsidies and of tariffs on so-called “sensitive imports” from the developing nations. (5) Since 1999, U.S. imbalances between domestic investment and saving (as well as budget deficits since 2002), and key Asian nations’ imbalances between domestic output and expenditure have generated huge current-account imbalances that endanger global economic stability. Measures to reduce these domestic imbalances are long overdue. As shown, a global financial crisis, followed by an economic slowdown, would significantly affect the performance of transition economies. Recent research has shown that private financial institutions have grown in tandem with the current-account imbalances and have greatly contributed to their financing (Greenspan, 2005). But there is no reason to believe that this form of financial intermediation will necessarily continue to grow at an equal pace with the current-account imbalances. Even if a free-fall in the value of the dollar is unlikely, an increase in quotas of the Group of Ten in the IMF appears to be required; it would enable the United States to draw upon an enlarged volume of key foreign currencies, strengthening its capacity to manage a potential precipitous fall in the value of the dollar in a systematic and gradual manner. (6) A salient conclusion of this study is that relevant aspects of a country's legal and prosecutorial systems need to be incorporated into the general economic analysis of its economy. Further research along these lines is likely to strengthen the foundations of modern macroeconomic and microeconomic analysis. For example, hypotheses concerning such group behavior as responses by corporations and unions to changes in fiscal, banking and legal policies need to be continually tested. On the microeconomic level, unresolved legal and transparency phenomena in the organizational structure of virtual (hub) and network (spider) corporations require further examination.20