سناریوهای انرژی کم انرژی برای کشورهای جنوب صحرای آفریقا: تجزیه و تحلیل ورودی-خروجی بر تاثیر دسترسی جهانی انرژی و رشد اقتصادی

Meeting Sub-Saharan African (SSA) human development goals will require economic development to be the priority over the coming decades, but economic development ‘at all cost’ may not be acceptable across these goals. This paper aims to explore five development scenarios for the five largest economies in SSA to understand the implications to CO2-equivalent emissions (CO2-e) and off-grid energy modernisation in 2030. Within this scope GDP growth; economic structure; availability of energy resources; international trade; and, the development of distributed generation for remote locations are considered. Regional CO2 emissions were studied using a Multi-Regional Input-Output Model for Africa. Under the scenarios analysed all five nations will be unable to reduce 2030 CO2-e emissions below 2012 levels, whilst simultaneously achieving forecast GDP growth and universal access to modernised energy services. 100% off-grid modernisation is estimated to require a three-fold increase in Primary Energy Supply and a 26% (1317 Mt) increase in 2030 CO2-e emissions. Total regional CO2-e emissions could be reduced from 45% to 35% by meeting a 50% renewable energy supply target by 2030. Climate Change policy would need to focus on multi-sector reform to reduce regional emissions as the agricultural sector is the largest emitter in Nigeria, Ethiopia and Kenya.