رژیم نرخ ارز و رشد اقتصادی در کشورهای اروپایی مرکزی و شرقی

One of the questions that have not received a clear answer by academics yet is if the exchange rate regime choice could influence the economic growth. The success of the stabilization programs based on exchange rates, the pegged exchange rate arrangements brake up in some emerging countries, the current difficulties in the Euro zone show why this topic is still controversial and important. We used OLS and GMM methods to estimate a growth model with dummy variables that isolate the effect of exchange rate regimes on economic growth. The research has been employed on 16 Central and Eastern European countries, where the exchange rate arrangement choice is a key point in the years before Euro adoption. We got statistically significant coefficients for the regime dummy variables, independently of the estimation method. Our results suggest superior effect on economic growth of the floating and intermediate regimes comparing to the fixed arrangements. Although the exchange rate stability is commonly viewed as stimulation for economic growth, it seems that it doesn’t support growth if it was obtained by massive interventions of the monetary authorities to support the exchange rate level. Our surprising result does not explain why a major part of the selected countries adopted hard pegs, although the flexible regimes apparently stimulate growth. It is possible that currency boards are not suitable for long periods of time, but just for a quick economic.

The implications of currency regimes choice on economic growth have been and still are the topic for debate both in the academic world and for the policy makers. The problem is extremely actual taking into account thatafter more than three decades since the fall of the Bretton Woods fixed exchange rates there is a variety of exchange rate policies at international level. The research on this topic is justified through the relatively recent successes of the stabilization programs based on exchange rates as well as the fall of fixed exchange rate regimes in some emergent countries, the introduction of Euro and the difficulties faced by the Economic and Monetary Union after over a decade of existence. In the 1990 report, the European Commission conducted an analysis which drew the conclusion that currency risk elimination stimulates the economic growth. The analysis lies on a neo-classical growth model inspired by Baldwin, 1989. The benefits of the single currency adoption can be amplified by the high degree of openness of an economy. For example, the elimination of transaction costs brings higher gains to the countries where the weight of commercial relations with the EMU countries is higher. The probability of decision errors due to the existence of commercial relations with many countries with different currencies also diminishes. The elimination of these risks brings major benefits per capita to the small and open economies in comparison with large and closed economies. In this study we aim at evaluating the effect of exchange rate regimes on economic growth for 16 Central and East European countries for the period 1999-2010, using the IMF de jure classification of currency regimes.

Our results reveal, based on the de jure classification, the superiority of floating and intermediate regimes over the fixed ones in provisioning a higher economic growth. Even if it is viewed in the literature as a stimulating factor of economic growth, we ascertain that the exchange rate stability does not favour economic growth if it is obtained through massive official interventions to support the exchange rate. This aspect is consistent with the results obtained by other researchers, as Harms and Kretschmann, 2009. The institutional weaknesses and the increased mobility of capital in the panel countries revealed the vulnerability of fixed regime countries. The results suggest that the currency boards may not be appropriate on a long run, but rather for short periods of time for the macroeconomic stabilization. A drawback of our paper may be the use of the de jure exchange rate regime classification. A further development of this research could focus on using alternative classification schemes to reveal the exchange rate arrangements effect on economic growth.