شواهد تجربی از اخبار در مورد چشم انداز آینده در خطر قیمت گذاری دارایی های نفت

This empirical paper investigates the relevance of long-run risks associated with uncertainty shocks to future growth prospects (news about future prospects) for explaining the risk-pricing of oil stocks. An econometric method that incorporates dynamic factor analysis is used for estimating the pricing equation of oil stocks. The results indicate that oil investors care about long-run risks associated with future growth prospects. Long-run risks account for almost half of the total risk-premium of oil stocks. Long-run risks associated with future growth prospects are significantly shaped by latent factors related to the labor market, the price indices, and financial markets. Moreover, our estimated model captures some historical events including the oil crisis of the seventies, the economic crisis of the mid-eighties, the stock market crash of 1987, and the economic crises of 1998 and 2000.