اثرات صنعت انرژی آبهای عمیق در رشد اقتصادی و ارائه خدمات عمومی در مجتمع Lafourche، لوئیزیانا
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Publisher : Elsevier - Science Direct (الزویر - ساینس دایرکت)
Journal : Socio-Economic Planning Sciences, Volume 42, Issue 3, September 2008, Pages 190–205
Oil and gas produced from active deepwater leases (over 1000 feet water depth) in the Gulf of Mexico as a percentage of total output increased from 27% in 1992 to 54% in 2005. This increase is requiring more land-based services. Port Fourchon's strategic location provides it with a competitive advantage as a supply base for a diverse set of deepwater oil and gas related activities, ranging from petroleum rig supply boats to the maintenance and repair of mobile drilling rigs. Further development of Port Fourchon as a supply base is expected to markedly impact Lafourche Parish. Community impact models (CIM) quantify the linkages among local economic activity and the demand for, and ability to support, local government services. A CIM developed for Louisiana, including an input–output module of the local economy, is used to evaluate the impact of the deepwater energy industry on the economy and government finances of Lafourche Parish. According to model results, the deepwater energy industry will continue to have a significant impact on that economy. By 2010, the industry was predicted to be directly and indirectly responsible for 2593 new jobs and $571 million in total output. Such activity should not strain the ability of local governments to deliver services.
The offshore energy industry has had, and will continue to have, a strong influence on local economies in Louisiana and other Gulf of Mexico (GOM) states. The industry has seen rapid expansion and contraction, with strong growth in the 1970s and early 1980s followed by a collapse in the mid-1980s . Recently, however, activity in the deepwater GOM (depths in excess of 1000 feet of water) has experienced a substantial resurgence which, while potentially revitalizing the economies of many GOM communities, may contribute to pressures on publicly provided services. Growth in the GOM deepwater energy industry (DEI) has centered around Port Fourchon, located in Lafourche Parish, Louisiana, as the major on-shore support base (see Fig. 1).1 Concerns have arisen as to the impact of resulting local economic growth on public services. Community impact models have been advanced as a means to evaluate such effects. The research presented in this paper is based on a community impact model developed for Louisiana (LCIM). The LCIM is a combination of an input–output module of the local economy, a local labor market module, and a fiscal impact module for local (parish area) government.Initially provided is a discussion of past and current activity in the GOM DEI. This is followed by a discussion of Port Fourchon, including its DEI support facilities. The structure of the LCIM model is then presented, followed by a discussion of model results. The impacts of DEI activity on the local economy, and on local public services and revenue yields, are emphasized. Limitations of the analysis are then summarized along with study implications.
نتیجه گیری انگلیسی
This study examined the potential economic impact of the development of the deepwater energy industry (DEI) on the local economy of Lafourche Parish, Louisiana. The local economy is modeled using a community impact model (CIM), which quantifies the linkages among local economic activity and impacts on local government revenues and expenditures. In order to adequately capture the impact of DEI on the local economy, the CIM was designed to capture several aspects of the community's economic system, including demographic, fiscal, and existing interindustry relationships. In general, we find that the DEI is causing substantial levels of growth at Port Fourchon and in the Lafourche Parish economy. The results obtained in this study are subject to certain assumptions about the level of activity for the DEI which may or may not be correct given changes in key factors, such as crude oil prices. However, this growth is predicted to continue to occur at least through the year 2010. The study also shows that expanding DEI will lead to increases in both local government revenues and expenditures. Under the DEI scenario, a large number of jobs were gained by in-commuters. The larger number of in-commuters holding jobs in Lafourche Parish resulted in a lower level of revenue projected from the CIM relative to a baseline growth scenario. Finally, the future of the DEI will continue to change as the sector evolves to meet the demands of new ultra-deepwater exploration activity. The degree to which the demands for labor and local goods and services creates more permanent residents or is met by imported goods and non-resident labor will determine whether local governments will benefit or face new public service challenges with the growth of the industry.