انرژی پاک، انرژی غیر پاک، و رشد اقتصادی در کشورهای MIST
|کد مقاله||سال انتشار||تعداد صفحات مقاله انگلیسی||ترجمه فارسی|
|12938||2014||11 صفحه PDF||سفارش دهید|
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Publisher : Elsevier - Science Direct (الزویر - ساینس دایرکت)
Journal : Energy Policy, Available online 9 January 2014
This paper explores the causal relationship between clean (renewable/nuclear) and non-clean energy consumption and economic growth in emerging economies of the MIST (Mexico, Indonesia, South Korea, and Turkey) countries. The panel co-integration tests reveal that there is a long-term equilibrium relationship among GDP, capital formation, labor force, renewable/nuclear, and fossil fuel energy consumption. The panel causality results indicate that (1) there is a positive unidirectional short-run causality from fossil fuel energy consumption to economic growth with a bidirectional long-run causality; (2) there is a unidirectional long-run causality from renewable energy consumption to economic growth with positive bidirectional short-run causality, and a long-run causality from renewable to fossil fuel energy consumption with negative short-run feedback effects; and (3) there is a bidirectional long-run causality between nuclear energy consumption and economic growth and a long-run causality from fossil fuel energy consumption to nuclear energy consumption with positive short-run feedback effects. These suggest that MIST countries should be energy-dependent economies and that energy conservation policies may depress their economic development. However, developing renewable and nuclear energy is a viable solution for addressing energy security and climate change issues, and creating clean and fossil fuel energy partnerships could enhance a sustainable energy economy.
In the past decade, using panel data to study the causal relationships between renewable and non-renewable energy consumption (Apergis and Payne, 2011a, Apergis and Payne, 2011b, Apergis and Payne, 2012a, Apergis and Payne, 2012b and Apergis and Payne, 2013) and nuclear energy consumption (Lee and Chiu, 2011, Nazlioglu et al., 2011 and Apergis and Payne, 2010), respectively and economic growth have attracted significant research interest. Indeed, it is important to understand the extent to which different types of energy consumption contribute to the economic growth process. The causalities between energy consumption and economic growth have different directions, so as to generate different policy implications. Under the assumption of positive correlation between energy consumption and economic growth, the presence of unidirectional causality from energy consumption to economic growth or bidirectional causality between them would suggest that energy conservation policies that reduce energy consumption may lead to decline in economic growth. In contrast, unidirectional causality from economic growth to energy consumption or no causality in either direction suggests that energy conservation policies will have little or no impact on economic growth (Apergis and Payne, 2013). However, various empirical study outcomes show different and even conflicted results with each other. According to Ozturk (2010), the main reasons of this inconsistence come from the differences in country characteristic, time period, econometric methodology, and types of energy consumption. In the recent articles of Apergis and Payne, 2011a, Apergis and Payne, 2011b, Apergis and Payne, 2012a, Apergis and Payne, 2012b and Apergis and Payne, 2013 and Pao and Fu (2013a), non-renewable energy consumption, which includes clean (nuclear) and non-clean (fossil fuel) energy sources, is considered to be aggregate energy consumption. In this study, the aggregate non-renewable energy consumption is further partitioned into nuclear and fossil fuel energy consumption, so as to explore the relationships between renewable, nuclear, and fossil fuel energy consumption, respectively and economic growth (Pao and Fu, 2013b). The dual goals are to distinguish the relationship between disaggregate consumption of clean and non-clean energy and economic growth, and to verify the substitutability of clean for non-clean energy consumption. Thus, the pitfalls of policy decision based on aggregate energy consumption alone can be avoided. Another reason of using the proposed disaggregated analysis is to achieve the vision of transition to a global green economy. If the world's enormous demand for clean energy is to be met, nuclear power complemented by new renewable sources of energy is urgently needed (Macusani Yellowcake, 2011). Currently, nuclear power plants supply approximately 5.7% of the global energy and 13–14% of the global electricity needs. Additionally, by 2018, renewable power will make up a quarter of the world's energy mix, up from 20% in 2011. With the increasing importance of sustainable development, clean energy sources (e.g., nuclear and renewable) have become the major components in the energy matrix. Therefore, two types of clean energy, renewable and nuclear, alongside fossil fuel non-clean energy consumption impact on economic growth are investigated. The proposed model is a novel study and provides more robust bases to strengthening the sustainable energy policy settings. For developing and emerging market economies, clean energy plays a significant role in the growth prospects and reduces negative environmental and health impacts. Such is the case in MIST (Mexico, Indonesia, South Korea, and Turkey), the next tier of large emerging economies with abundance of clean resources and increasing demand for energy. The MIST nations are expected to exhibit high growth over the next 20–30 years, but they are also in the top 20 countries producing carbon emissions. Developing clean energy is critical to offer a viable alternative for sustainable economies. A brief description of clean energy resources and recent developing achievements of these countries are as follows. For wind power, Mexico's annual growth rate in wind power capacity was the highest in the world in 2012. The country intends to increase its wind energy capacity to 15% of the country's electricity mix to diversify its energy portfolio. South Korea has initiated a massive wind energy program to reduce the country's huge fossil fuel imports. Indonesia will cooperate with the United Nations Development Program to develop wind power generation projects. Turkey's wind power capacity will increase 16-fold by 2020 to meet the demand for an annual growth rate of 7% in electricity. For hydropower, the electricity sector in Mexico obtains approximately 19% of its total installed capacity from hydropower. In South Korea, hydroelectric generation represents 40% of the country's energy supply. Indonesia also has great potential to develop mini hydroelectric power plants (1 MW–10 MW of capacity). In Turkey, 32–35% of the electricity demand could be met by hydro power plants by 2020. For geothermal power, the installed capacities in Indonesia, Mexico, and Turkey rank the third, the fifth, and the tenth, respectively in the world. Indonesia added the most geothermal capacity in 2012, and Turkey was second. In fact, Turkey is the world's seventh richest country for geothermal energy potential. South Korea also has substantial geothermal potential; 2% of geothermal energy developed from surface to a depth of 5 km will be equivalent to approximately 200 times the country's annual primary energy consumption in 2006 (Lee et al., 2010). For solar energy, Mexico's solar thermal resources are among the best in the world. The quality of its PV is also among the world's best. Solar thermal and PV power generation will account for 5% of Mexico's energy supply by 2030 and up to 10% by 2050. South Korea is currently ranked among the top 10 installers of solar power in the world. Indonesia is one of the most important emerging solar markets in Southeast Asia. Turkey is located in an advantageous position for solar power because it has average 7.2 hours a day of sunny weather throughout the year. Solar energy is the most important alternative clean energy source in Turkey. For bio-energy, Mexican bio-energy power may account for 16.17% of the total energy consumption by 2030 (Islas et al., 2007). The government of South Korea plans to increase the use of biomass to 30.8% of new renewable energy by 2030 (Bioenergy Crops, 2012). Indonesia has one of the best biomass energy potentials because it has one of the highest levels of energy for photosynthesis per unit area. Biomass may be able to replace fossil fuel in Indonesia (Panjaitan, 2013). In Turkey, biomass energy is generally used as non-commercial fuel in traditional methods and accounts for approximately a fourth of domestic energy production. However, traditional biomass energy production should be gradually reduced to allow the development of modern biomass energy production (IZKA, 2012). For nuclear power, currently Indonesia and Turkey are almost no nuclear power consumption, but South Korea generates approximately a third or more of its power from nuclear energy. The Mexican government also actively supports the expansion of nuclear energy, which could reduce their dependency on natural gas and also increase the amount of carbon-free power generation to 35% of the country's power by 2024. Turkey's plans for nuclear power are a key aspect of the country's objective of 8% growth, which is based in part on reducing the country's huge energy imports. Indonesia also plans to build nuclear power to support the country's energy needs. Because there is a wealth of clean energy resources in MIST, this paper explores, when both clean and non-clean energy have considerable percentage of consumption, the relative influence of each type of energy consumption on economic growth. Policymakers could balance the use of different energy resources to achieve wealthy, grow, and prosperity in a clean environment. In this study, we employ a neo-classical one-sector aggregate production model, in which capital, labor, renewable/nuclear energy consumption, and fossil fuel energy consumption are treated as separate inputs, to investigate the relative influence of each type of energy consumption on economic growth. Within this framework, a vector error correction model (VECM) is employed to test for multivariate co-integration and Granger causality. The remainder of this paper is structured as follows. Section 2 presents a brief literature review. Section 3 describes the analytical model and econometric methodology. Section 4 presents the empirical results of both data analysis and causality analysis. The final section presents conclusions and policy implications.
نتیجه گیری انگلیسی
In light of the high volatility of energy prices, high growth in energy demand, and global warming caused by fossil fuels, clean energy (such as hydroelectricity, new renewables, and nuclear energy) has become an important alternative to fossil fuel energy. The aim of this study is to explore the causal relationship between clean and non-clean energy consumption and economic growth in the MIST countries in the period of 1990 to 2010. Two types of clean energy consumptions, renewable and nuclear, and fossil fuel non-clean energy consumption, are studied. The simultaneous use of clean and non-clean energy consumption in the framework of production function was intended to allow us to distinguish the relative influence of each type on economic growth and to analyze the substitutability between the different types of energy sources. Such disaggregate analysis can provide more robust bases to strengthening the sustainable energy policy settings in the MIST countries. The panel co-integration tests reveal that there is a long-term equilibrium relationship between real GDP, capital formation, labor force, renewable/nuclear, and fossil fuel energy consumption for MIST/MS countries. This result is robust to possible cross-country dependence and still holds when allowing for structure breaks. For the two complete panels, the mean estimate of the fossil fuel energy consumption elasticity of real GDP is near 0.78, and the estimates of the renewable and nuclear energy consumption elasticity of real GDP are 0.18 and 0.09, respectively. This finding implies that a 1% rise in fossil fuel, renewable, or nuclear energy consumption entail a 0.78%, 0.18%, or 0.09% increase in real GDP, respectively. These findings suggest that the main driving force behind real GDP is fossil fuel, while renewable energy's influence on income is stronger than that of nuclear power in MIST if capital formation and labor force do not change. In fact, for emerging market, new renewables can play a significant role in the development of rural and remote areas for transmission and distribution. Producing new renewables energy can offer a viable alternative for sustainable economies. The dynamic relationship between clean and non-clean energy consumption and economic growth provides conclusions for each of the three different types of energy consumption. First, there is a unidirectional long-run causality from renewable energy consumption to economic growth with positive bidirectional short-run causality for the MIST countries. This finding suggests that the expansion of renewable energy projects can enhance economic growth in MIST countries and also that as MIST's economy continues to grow, there will be more resources to stimulate their renewable energy industry. Furthermore, the findings of no long-run causality from either economic growth or fossil fuel energy consumption to renewable energy consumption imply that the governments of the MIST countries have a strong desire to promote renewable energy for sustainable development and to reduce their GHG emissions, regardless of economic growth. Second, there is a bidirectional long-run causality between nuclear energy consumption and economic growth but no short-run causality from either fossil fuel energy consumption or economic growth to nuclear energy consumption for MS countries. This result suggests that the generation of nuclear power is stable and unlikely to be affected by fluctuations in economic growth or fossil fuel energy, and also that MS emerging countries will increase their nuclear energy demand as their income increases in the long-run. However, limiting nuclear energy use would hamper economic growth in MS countries. For the relationship between nuclear energy consumption and economic growth, the results of comparative analysis show that nuclear power countries or developed countries more inclined to unidirectional causality, while emerging or developing countries more inclined to bidirectional causality. Third, there is a positive unidirectional short-run causality from fossil fuel energy consumption to economic growth with bidirectional long-run causality between them. This finding suggests that MIST countries should be energy-dependent economies and that economic growth will increase fossil fuel energy demand but also that limiting fossil fuel energy use would hamper economic growth. The development of both renewable and nuclear energy sources is a viable solution for addressing energy security and climate change issues. For alternative energy issues, our empirical results show that there is a long-run causality running from fossil fuel energy consumption to nuclear energy consumption with short-run positive feedback effects. This finding suggests that the demand for fossil fuel energy will have significant impact on nuclear energy development in considering energy security and climate change issues. The finding of positive impact of nuclear energy consumption on fossil fuel energy consumption may be due to the high cost of nuclear radioactive waste disposal as well as the huge energy demand in MS emerging markets. Second, there is a long-run causality running from renewable to fossil fuel energy consumption. This finding suggests that expanding renewable energy projects in MIST countries could curb environmental degradation and carbon emissions and create an opportunity to move towards an energy-independent economy. Furthermore, the negative impact of fossil fuel energy consumption on renewable energy consumption without feedback suggests that MIST emerging markets depend heavily on fossil fuel energy to meet the demand, and there is an alternative relationship between renewable and fossil fuel energy. In conclusion, this study not only clarifies the relationship between renewable/nuclear (clean energy) and fossil fuel (non-clean) energy consumption but also demonstrates the impact of clean energy use on economic growth. For emerging markets, the results show that increasing renewable or nuclear energy consumption enhances economic growth and that creating partnerships of clean and non-clean energy might enhance the sustainable energy economy. Thus, the governments should introduce incentivizing policies, such as investment subsidies, tax rebates, tax incentives, sales tax, and green certificate trading, to promote the development of a clean energy economy. For energy-dependent economies, to ensure energy security and stability, minimize the impact of high oil price volatility on macroeconomics, and reduce GHG emissions, the development of nuclear power must also continue to play a role but may give rise to the high cost of nuclear radioactive waste disposal, nuclear safety, and security risks. Additionally, in order to reduce emissions and not to adversely affect economic growth, energy conservation policies by increasing energy efficiency are also important.