ریسک سلب مالکیت و قیمت مسکن: شواهدی از بازار نوظهور

This paper examines the microeconomic determinants of residential real estate prices in Caracas, Venezuela, using a private database containing 17,526 transactions from 2008 to 2009. The particular institutional characteristics of many countries in Latin America, and Venezuela in particular, where land invasions and expropriations (with only partial compensation) have been common threats to property owners, provide us with an opportunity to test the effects of these risks on housing prices using a unique database. The effect of these risks on property prices is negative and significant. To our knowledge, this is the first attempt to quantify these impacts in the Hedonic pricing literature applied to real estate. Size, the number of parking spaces, the age of the property, the incidence of crime, and the average income in the neighborhood are significant determinants of prices. Finally, this paper analyzes the microeconomic determinants of housing prices at the municipal level.

This article examines the microeconomic determinants of the price (per square meter) of housing in Caracas, Venezuela. By doing so, it builds a framework of reference for investors who can use it to determine the price of a property based on its attributes; for owners, who may apply it to determine the value of their properties and the characteristics that drive their values; to developers, as they can estimate the optimal combination of attributes a property should have in order to maximize their benefits; to banks, who will have an objective methodology of valuation of assets that will serve as a guarantee for the delivery of a possible credit; and, finally, to policy makers, who can gauge, among other findings, the negative impact that invasions and expropriations may have on property prices. This is the first study of this type performed in Caracas, the largest real estate market in Venezuela and the fourth largest economy in Latin America. It is also the first article that measures the effect of expropriations and invasions on the prices of (neighboring) houses. The authors analyze the microeconomic determinants of the price of housing in the metropolitan area of Caracas and the magnitude of their effects from 2008 to 2009. The article is divided into four sections. The first section develops a conceptual framework concerning the valuation of real estate assets using a Hedonic pricing model and provides the background, functional forms, and the most important conclusions found in the literature. The next section describes the main components of the data, as well as the descriptive statistical indicators. The authors present their adaptation of the model to the analysis of this particular data set and present the results for the metropolitan area of Caracas and for each of the five municipalities that comprise it in the third section. Finally, the main empirical results are highlighted and the conclusions are provided in the last section.

The main contribution of this article to the literature in Hedonic pricing models applied to real estate is the inclusion and quantification of the effects of perceived expropriation and invasion (illegal occupation) risks at the municipality level as key determinants of housing prices. This is the first attempt to quantify these impacts in the Hedonic pricing literature applied to real estate. The particular institutional characteristics of some countries in Latin America, and of Venezuela in particular where land invasions and expropriations have been common threats to property owners, provides the authors with an opportunity to test the effects of these risks on housing prices using a unique database. There was a significant and negative effect of these risks on housing prices. The findings are robust to the different ways in which a property invasion and expropriation's risk index may be constructed. The Venezuelan economic and business environment (e.g., 762 expropriations from 2005 to 2009, a period that includes the two years of this study, 2008 and 2009, and two years prior) provides a unique setting to test these effects and specify their particular impact on housing prices. The authors employed a reasonable Hedonic function that uses attributes as input and forms the market price of the unit as its output. The parking spaces variable and invasions and expropriations risks were the two most significant variables judging by the coefficients of the t-statistics. Furthermore, the market where the operation is performed, whether primary or secondary, the square meters of construction, the age of the building, the income level of the neighborhood, the period of the transaction, and the number of homicides per 100,000 inhabitants (a proxy for neighborhood violence), are all statistically significant variables. The whole model is reasonably adapted to the data at any level of significance (F-test). Similar models were run for each of the municipalities to determine whether there were differences among them. It should be noted that the parking space variable is not significant in the El Hatillo municipality. Alternatively, the coefficient for the variable age of the building exhibited a negative sign in the cases of the municipalities of Baruta and Chacao, contrary to the results obtained in the general model and in the rest of the surveyed municipalities. Despite these differences, the results remained consistent with those found in the general model.