مصرف الکل در اسپانیا و هزینه های اقتصادی آن: رویکرد مدل سازی ریاضی

In this paper, a mathematical model for alcohol consumption in Spanish population is proposed. Its parameters are estimated by fitting the model to real data from Spanish Ministry of Health. Predictions about the future behavior of the alcohol consumption in Spain are presented using this model. Results are applied to estimate the economic costs (sanitary and non-sanitary) assumed by Spanish society that are derived from this consumption.

Alcohol consumption is growing at a fast rate in developed and developing countries and it is becoming a serious problem not only from the individual health point of view but also from the public socioeconomic one, motivated by the high cost of the Health Public Care System due to the assistance expenditure of people suffering diseases related with this consumption [1] and [2]. It has been estimated that the alcohol consumption derived cost is around 3800 millions of Euros per year in Spain [3]. In this paper, we analyze the evolution of alcohol consumption in Spain (see Table 1[3]) and estimate the economic quantification of the impact of this alcohol consumption in the next few years.In this article, we present an epidemiological-type mathematical model to study the transmission dynamics and evolution of the alcohol consumption in Spanish population. Additionally, we present estimations of the economic costs of this consumption. These types of epidemiological models also have been used in the study of ecstasy or heroin addiction [4] and [5] and in the approach to another topics that spread by social contact like obesity or extreme behaviors [6] and [7]. This paper is organized as follows. In the next section the mathematical model is presented and the model parameters are estimated. Once the mathematical model is established Section 3 contains numerical simulations of the model with consumption predictions for the next few years. In Section 4, we present the economic cost estimations. Section 5 is devoted to the conclusions.

In this article, we estimate the economic cost produced by alcohol consumption in Spain in the next few years. The estimation are based on cost of illness estimations that include sanitary costs and non-sanitary costs, such as treatment of alcohol-related occupational accidents or sick payment and cost related to productivity decrease. These economic estimations are also based on a epidemiological-type mathematical model that predicts the proportions of Spanish alcohol consumers in the next few years. This study concludes that we expect a cost to Spanish society derived from alcohol consumption at least of 5645 million of euros by 2011 and 5680 million of euros by 2013 (this predictions are estimated with the value of the euro in year 2000). To put this cost in context, the estimated cost attributable to alcohol consumption by 2011 (or by 2013) is approximately 2.5% of the Spanish government expenditure for year 2009 [22].