بهره وری از همکاری های بین المللی در کاهش تغییرات جوی : تجزیه و تحلیل از پیاده سازی مشترک، مکانیسم توسعه پاک و انتشار تجارت برای جمهوری فدرال آلمان، فدراسیون روسیه و اندونزی

This paper presents results of an analysis of the flexible instruments joint implementation, clean development mechanism and emission allowance trading with regard to achieving CO2 emission reduction targets economically. The analysis is based on the development and application of energy and material flow models for the considered countries, the Federal Republic of Germany as a host country with quantified emission reduction targets as well as the Russian Federation and Indonesia as potential partners. In this approach, a transparent and credible baseline for the calculation of emission credits is determined by developing consistent national emission reduction strategies for each country. The efficiency of international cooperation is subsequently analysed by linking the national models using a decomposition algorithm. Different assumptions with respect to the economic and political framework as well as regarding the impact of transaction costs associated with cooperation projects are considered. The model results show substantial potentials to limit emission reduction expenditures by multilateral cooperation. The most favourable types of cooperation projects for the considered countries are CO2 sequestration and power plant projects.

At the UN Conference on Environment and Development in Rio de Janeiro in 1992, 154 countries signed the UN Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) which lays down measures to reduce the anthropogenous emissions of greenhouse gases (GHG). The Kyoto Protocol (see United Nations, 1997a) was a crucial step in the refining of the UNFCCC as it sets legally binding emission targets for a basket of six greenhouse gases. These targets apply to most OECD countries and countries with economies in transition (Annex I countries) and refer to the period 2008–2012. To reach the targets, countries may take recourse to flexibility mechanisms/Kyoto mechanisms, namely joint implementation (JI, Article 6 of the Kyoto Protocol), the clean development mechanism (CDM, Article 12), and international emissions trading (Article 17). JI and CDM are based on the concept of allowing one country (investor/donor) to fulfil its reduction targets by carrying out reduction measures on the territory of another country (host). JI applies to investments in Annex I countries, CDM to investments in GHG abatement in developing countries. The resulting emission reduction is then distributed among the partners using an emission crediting system. In addition, the emission credits have to be approved by national and international bodies. In contrast, emission trading is based on a supranational system of fully tradable certified emission reductions. Although first experiences with JI/CDM-projects have been gathered in the last few years, the following questions remain open: • What are the differences with regard to the cost of a reduction of greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions — in particular CO2 — between individual countries or groups of countries? • Which potentials for JI/CDM projects can be derived from these cost differences and • which project types should be given preference as future JI/CDM projects? • Which additional transaction costs arise in conjunction with JI/CDM projects? • Which expenditures are incurred to cover the financial risks associated with the projects? • What influence do expenditures for transactions and risk coverage have on the efficiency of the instrument JI/CDM? • What are the options to solve the present problems in making the instrument operational, especially with regard to the determination of the reference project/the baseline1 and the organisation of incentive systems? The aim of this study is to analyse the problems outlined by these questions from the point of view of the Federal Republic of Germany (FRG) as a potential investor country for JI/CDM projects and to derive conclusions and recommendations for the structure and implementation of JI/CDM. The analyses carried out in this article are composed of several elements. In the first step, an optimising energy model is presented as a methodology for the elaboration of national emission reduction strategies. To integrate international cooperation approaches into national strategies, national energy models are linked using a decomposition algorithm. In the second part of the article important problems and possible solutions in the practical implementation of JI/CDM are identified. Then a national reduction strategy for the FRG will be developed and compared to a reduction strategy incorporating JI/CDM projects — including the expenditures for transactions and coverage of project risks. The Russian Federation as an example of an Eastern European country in transition (JI partner country) and Indonesia as an example of an Asian country with a forecast high growth in energy demand (CDM partner country) are selected as typical potential host countries. Further considerations and an outlook constitute the last part of the article. With the Kyoto-Protocol having prepared the ground for the introduction of an international emission trading, JI/CDM will be compared to this instrument and first conclusions regarding an emission allowance trade will be drawn.