انتشار تجاری CO2 در کشورهای اتحادیه اروپا و ضمیمه B : مورد صنعت سیمان

The cement industry is the third largest carbon emitting industrial sector in the EU. This article presents the foreseeable technological evolution of the cement industry under business as usual circumstances, and examines the effects on the sector of carbon trading. For those purposes a global dynamic simulation model of the cement industry (CEMSIM) has been developed. The model is composed of a series of interconnected modules on cement consumption and production, international trade and capacity planning. This study quantifies the benefits achieved from emission trading in different markets (EU15, EU27 and Annex B), derived both from the revenues of emission trading, and from the lower compliance costs. The magnitude of the potential carbon leakage effect is also assessed.

Emission trading is one of the international flexible mechanisms of the Kyoto Protocol on climate change to reduce greenhouse gas emissions in a cost-efficient way. Overall compliance costs of meeting a given carbon reduction target are lower under an international emission market than in the case of segmented or isolated markets. The European Union is to set up a carbon emission market for the power and energy-intensive industrial sectors (such as steel, cement, and pulp and paper) in 2005,1 i.e. 3 years before the start of the commitment period of the Kyoto Protocol (2008–2012). This will be the first multi-country carbon emission market in the world. This article presents a global simulation model (CEMSIM—Cement Simulation Model)2 to quantitatively analyse the future development of the cement sector and the impacts of different carbon trading schemes on it. The cement industry is one of the largest energy consuming sectors. Indeed, the building material sector—whose emissions are dominated by the cement production—is the third largest CO2 emitting industrial sector world-wide and in the European Union.3 According to the importance of the cement industry many studies in the literature have dealt with its future prospects. The IEA Greenhouse Gas R & D Programme study (see International Energy Agency (IEA), 1999) has global coverage and assesses the development of the sector in the 2020 horizon. Its main focus is on the CO2 reduction potential of the sector, examining the energy efficiency improvement options. Its main finding is that under a business as usual scenario global emissions from the industry almost double in the 1995–2020 period. They conclude that assuming considerable technological improvements, the increase in carbon emissions could be limited to 35%. Two other references of the literature are country-specific, focusing on large cement consuming regions of the world. Worrell et al. (2000) describe the energy efficiency improvement potentials in the US cement industry, based on a detailed national technology database. These authors set up an energy conservation curve, and estimate an 11% energy saving potential for the country. Liu et al. (1995) follow a different approach for China and estimate a 30% energy intensity improvement potential. Their results are based on three different scenarios concerning the technology and efficiency of the new plants. Rotman and Kelmanzky (1997) estimated a function of cement demand in Argentina using regression analysis. They conclude that income, the construction price index, and cement consumption lagged one period are significant variables. According to their findings the income and lagged consumption are the most important variables, while the price of construction is less influential. The CEMSIM model is composed of a series of interconnected modules on cement consumption and production, international trade and capacity planning. Those variables are calculated using behavioural equations. The model covers 51 regions of the world, including all 15 EU countries,4 which enables to simulate the interactions of the different national emission trading markets. In the present modelling exercise the effects of three alternative policy scenarios are examined, differing in market coverage and equilibrium carbon prices. The dynamic recursive simulation model is taking into account rich technological details. Several technology options are considered concerning the future development of the industry. Feasible retrofitting options and emerging technologies are included in the technology database, which contains detailed information on investment, variable and retrofitting costs. This database, and in particular the retrofitting options, provide with the foundation of the marginal abatement cost curves for the industry, which is the core element of the emission trading simulations. Emission reductions are not based on static abatement cost curves, as in many similar models, but on a dynamic system where the interaction among price variations, international trade, technology options and economic logic drive the actions of the market participants. This article has the following structure. Section 2 gives a short description of the cement industry and introduces the retrofitting options for the sector. Section 3 describes the main characteristics of the CEMSIM model. Section 4 presents the results of the reference and the emission trading scenarios, with a detailed sensitivity analysis. Finally, Section 5 concludes.

This article has presented a recursive simulation model of the cement industry, the CEMSIM model. The model has been used to study the most important trends in the world cement market concerning production, technology development, energy consumption and carbon emissions in the 2000–2030 period. The article also analyses the potential impact on the cement sector derived from the implementation of new market mechanisms aimed to fulfil the carbon reduction targets set up by the Kyoto Protocol on climate change. In particular, the benefits of three potential international emission trading markets have been calculated (EU15, EU27 and Annex B). In the reference scenario a sharp increase in world cement production is expected. The 1550 Mt of cement production in 1997 is projected to reach 2800 Mt by 2030. This increase is due to the intensive growth of cement consumption in developing regions, mainly China, South-East Asia and India, tied to their intensive industrialisation processes. On the contrary, developed regions, such as North America, Europe and OECD Pacific, have stabilising or declining consumption patterns, while their cement production is expected to rise slightly. International trade in cement shows an uninterrupted growing trend. It is projected to increase from 112 Mt in 1997 to 450 Mt in 2030, which translates into a rise in the share of international trade in consumption from 7% to 16%. Developed regions are the main exporters, while most of the developing regions import an increasing share of their consumption. China is the only exception, a country projected to be the largest exporter by 2020. Concerning the evolution of the technology portfolio the most advanced dry-preheater and dry-pre-calciner technologies are expected to become the most widespread technologies by 2030. Technologies with higher energy consumption, such as the wet long and dry long kilns will be driven out from the market or will be retrofitted. Global CO2 emissions from the cement industry will increase by more than 50% in the BAU scenario, reaching 2100 Mt by 2030. The growth of carbon emissions is less intensive than the growth in cement production due to the shift to cleaner technologies and the improvements in energy efficiency. But the results also suggest that the sector will continue to increase the shares of carbon-intensive fuels in both the reference and carbon trading cases. The impacts of three different CO2 emission trading schemes have been numerically calculated with the model. Under the EU15-wide emission trading scheme the costs of fulfilling the Kyoto Protocol targets in the cement sector would be reduced by 50 M€. This benefit is quite concentrated in some northern European countries. At the equilibrium price of 28 €/t CO2 (projected by the POLES model) the cement industries of most of the EU-15 countries would be permit buyers. If the trading scheme is enlarged to the EU27, the permit price would fall (to 18 €/t CO2) and benefits for the participating countries would increase to 67 M€. Accession countries would mainly benefit from their ‘hot air’, but their projected growing cement consumption reduces their trading potential by 2010. An Annex B-wide emission trading would entail a 15 €/t CO2 permit price as well, with additional benefits for the participants, estimated to amount to 99 M€. These numbers are in accordance with the theory, as increasing the ‘pool’ size of participating countries should decrease overall compliance costs and raise benefits. On the other hand, according to the model results the sub-global coverage of emission trading does not lead to very high carbon leakage effects till 2010 in the considered permit price range (0–50 €/t CO2). However with increasing permit price beyond this range the leakage effect might intensify. Finally, the quantitative results of this study do not intend to be forecasts or predictions about the future evolution of the cement sector. The CEMSIM model provides with numerical results, taking into account the current available data and the relationships between the model variables. The model results are therefore to be interpreted in the particular proposed analytical framework. Undoubtedly, there remain significant data problems and poorly understood key relationships. The ultimate purpose of this research has been to provide with useful insights for policymakers.