احتساب حمل و نقل هوایی در طرح انتشار تجاری در اروپا : اثرات در صنعت، انتشار CO2 و فعالیت اقتصاد کلان در اتحادیه اروپا

In July 2008, motivated by the expected high growth of aviation and the related impacts on climate change, the European Parliament adopted a directive to include airlines in the European Emissions Trading Scheme. This paper discusses possible impacts of this inclusion on the aviation industry in terms of CO2 emissions and the macroeconomic activity in the EU. The analysis uses the Energy–Environment–Economy Model for Europe, a dynamic simulation model to investigate impacts of the European Emissions Trading Scheme on air transport. The impacts on air transport output and the macroeconomic effects are estimated to be small. This was robust to varying the carbon price. However, air transport CO2 emissions were expected to decrease by up to 7.4%, which is more than that estimated previously and stems mainly from the supply-side reaction of the industry.

Aircraft emissions contribute to climate change by increasing the concentrations of greenhouse gases (GHGs) in the atmosphere (Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, 1999). Carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions from international aviation comprised about 3% of global and EU inventories in 2004 (Enerdata, 2009). Growth in CO2 emissions from international aviation in EU countries showed 85% growth from 1990 to 2004 (European Environment Agency, 2007). In addition, aircraft contribute to climate change by emitting nitrogen oxides, sulphur dioxide, soot and water vapour. Less well understood warming effects attributed to aircraft emissions include the formation of contrails and cirrus clouds. There are no binding policies in place to tackle the climate change issues related to international air transport. For example, the 1997 Kyoto Protocol targets do not include aviation emissions from international flights. The EU has decided to tackle the problem unilaterally and in July 2008 it was decided to include the aviation industry (all domestic and international flights) in the European Emissions Trading Scheme (EU ETS) from 2012. Hence the EU ETS will also cover the CO2 emissions from aviation industry that are currently not covered by the Kyoto Protocol. A binding emissions trading scheme (one with significant allowance price) has the potential to reduce CO2 emissions. This kind of scheme has the potential to induce behavioural changes in the short and medium term and technological changes in the longer term by sending price signals to the aviation industry. Whether or not the inclusion of the aviation sector in the EU ETS has broader impacts on the EU's aviation industry depends on the scope of the final rules (e.g., does it apply to non-EU based companies?), the price impacts on airline tickets, and the extent by which carriers that are not covered by the scheme are able to gain market share. This study examines possible impacts of proposed policy on the aviation industry (output), on CO2 emissions, and macroeconomic activity in the EU. It will not discuss legal aspects of aviation emission trading; neither are impacts on other industries (e.g. tourism, etc.) discussed. It studies the impacts of the proposed policy using an integrated multisectoral approach, The Energy–Environment–Economy Model for Europe (E3ME). The air transport industry is intimately connected to other sectors in the economy and therefore these connections should not be omitted – for example, the feedbacks between the air transport industry and GDP (via other sectors, such as tourism) should be included in the model.

Despitecontribution onlyabout 3%toCO 2 emissions and climate change, aviation is argued to be the most unsustainable mode of transport currently available ( Chapman, 2007 ). This is due to the rapid expansion and estimated future growth of the sector caused by globalisation, increasing GDP, liberalisation of the air transport market combined with current matured technology and the appearance of the low fares business models. Integrating aviation into the EU ETS will be the first policy measure to control this impact. The policy assessment done using E3ME shows that inclusion of the aviation sector as proposed by EC will result in negligible reductions in growth rates of the demand for air transport by 2020 compared to no action scenarios; a result is robust to different allowance prices. E3ME shows larger reductions – up to 7.4% in CO 2 emitted by the air transport industry. This is mainly a supply-side response to raised costs and investments from increased profits that appear because of passing on opportunity costs to consumers. The study also analysed impacts on real GDP by 2020 finding a negligible effect suggesting that including aviation in the EU ETS will not affect the Union’s competitiveness. However, at lower allowance prices there might be a slight increase in CO 2 at the EU level. This was seen when the auctioning revenues were used to increase government spending and thereby generate more economic activity. Why are larger impacts not observed? The amount of allow- ances needed by aviation will be small (up to 4%) compared with the size of the trading scheme and aviation industry counts for a relatively small share of GDP in most of the EU member states. Moreover it seems that even the highest price scenario of V 40 per tonne of CO 2 considered will be too low to trigger any significant changes in the air transport sector. Taking into account these predictions, inclusion of air transport emissions to the EU ETS might not significantly affect the EU economy as a whole.