منابع انرژی تجدید پذیر در تامین انرژی اروپا و تعامل با انتشار تجارت

This paper presents a model-based approach, which allows to determine the optimised structure and operation of the EU-15 electricity supply under different political and economic framework conditions, with a focus on the integration of renewable energy sources for electricity generation (RES-E) in the EU-15 countries. The approach is designed to take into account the characteristics of power production from both renewable and conventional sources, including the technological and economic characteristics of existing plants as well as those of future capacity expansion options. Beyond that, fuel supply structures are modelled, as well as the international markets for power and CO2-certificates with their restrictions. Thus, a profound evaluation of the exploitation of mid-term renewable potentials and an assessment of the market penetration of the various renewable power generation technologies under the (normative) premise of a cost-optimised evolution of the power system becomes possible. Results show that a promotion of renewable energies reduces the scarcity of CO2-emission allowances and thus lowers marginal costs of CO2 reduction up to 30% in 2030. Despite the higher overall costs, a diversification of the energy resource base by RES-E use is observed, as primarily natural gas and nuclear fuels are replaced.

Along with efforts to achieve CO2 mitigation and a better energy efficiency, one major contemporary strategic challenge for the European electricity supply system is the integration of substantial amounts of renewable energy sources. In addition to the specific goals for each EU Member State already set in Directive 2001/77/EC for 2010 (Commission of the European Communities, 2001), more ambitious targets have been set for the share of renewable sources in final energy consumption (not only electricity) for 2020 in the Directive 2009/28/EC (Commission of the European Communities, 2009).1 While the performance parameters of renewable energy technologies are continuously being improved, the politically and environmentally motivated introduction of significant amounts of renewable electricity generation is likely to depend on incentive schemes in the short- to mid-term future. Besides the inhomogenous geographical distribution of renewable energy resources, the temporal evolution of renewable electricity market penetration in the EU Member States will thus be influenced by the different design options for national promotion schemes and their possible future harmonisation. Likewise, the future cost structure of conventional electricity generation also has an influence on the economy of renewable electricity generation and the necessary support. Moreover, physical interdependencies between renewable and conventional power generation exist. In order to develop adequate policies and strategies, policy makers as well as decision makers in utilities must be able to consider the above mentioned interdependencies in order to get an idea of the future consequences of their decisions. In this paper a modelling approach will be presented which enables a quantitative assessment of the long-term role of renewable electricity production under varying framework conditions within the liberalised European electricity market. At first, methodological aspects of RES-E integration will be briefly introduced in Section 2. Subsequently, the chosen modelling approach will be shortly described in Section 3. The focus of this paper is set on the evolution of renewable energy production and its cost effects in European electricity supply, which will be presented for selected scenarios in Section 4. The paper ends with a conclusion and outlook.

A model-based approach for the assessment of the potential contribution of RES-E to the European power supply and its interactions with existing power generation has been introduced. It makes use of two complementary models, the long-term optimising energy system model PERSEUS-RES-E and the AEOLIUS dynamic simulation model for power plant scheduling at increasing levels of fluctuating (wind) power production. The approach allows to quantitatively determine the influence of RES- E policy options and framework conditions, indicating in whichEU Member State what kind and what capacity of RES-E facilities are most economical, and when they should be installed. Results show that without targets or financial incentives the current and expected future cost situation in the electricity sector (without taking into account external costs, however) would only allow to a very small amount of renewable sources to become a favourable economic solution, even if CO 2 restrictions are introduced. In this case, CO 2 reductions in conventional power production (e.g. fuel-switch from coal to gas and introduction of CCS), or increased imports of less CO 2 -intensive electricity are cheaper options than the development of renewable electricity production. On the other hand, a substantial increase of renew- able electricity use with high growth rates throughout the time horizon of the model can be observed when RES-E targets or incentive mechanisms are introduced. Although more expensive in total, a politically induced introduction of renewable electricity reduces the scarcity of CO 2 emission allowances and lowers the marginal costs of CO 2 reduction up to 30% in 2030, when ambitious targets are specified for this year. Despite the higher overall costs, a diversification of the energy resource base by RES- E use is observed, as primarily natural gas and nuclear fuels are replaced. Although not economically valued in the electricity market, this is a bonus in terms of a weakened increase of the energy import dependency. More generally it can be concluded that the approach allows to assess electricity sector market developments under the inter- related effects of design options for various policy instruments and other framework conditions. This does not only concern the support of renewable electricity utilisation, but also e.g. the field of emission reduction policies. Further, the developed model instrument can easily be adapted to take into account other environmental policy measures, such as energy conservation and efficiency measures. The results of the analysis illustrate that the implemented modelling approach is a sophisticated and versatile tool, both for utilities to analyse future market developments, and also for policy planners in order to develop effective and efficient design options, especially for renewable electricity support. The developed model in the current version only represents the electricity sector. As the new Directive 2009/28/EC refer to the share of renewables in gross final consumption and not only for electricity, we aim to extend the model to other sectors, this means especially to include the heat and transport sector. Particularly, the heat sector offers a significant and not expensive potential for the use of renewable energies. Also in the transportsector a potential for the use of renewables arises with the use of biomass and with the use of new technologies, such as electric mobility. Especially electric mobility will increase the interactions between the transport and electricity sector and thus necessitates an integrated model. The discussed extension of the model would allow using the model for the design and evaluation of the national renewable energy action plans. With this extension, the discussed modelling approach would be a sophisticated tool, especially for policy planners in order to develop effective and efficient design options for renewable electricity support.