مدل تفسیری از سرمایه گذاری مستقیم خارجی در چین: یک رویکرد سیاست اقتصادی

The objective of this paper is to elaborate an interpretative model of foreign direct investment (FDI) in China based on an integrated view of economic policy. Along with the analysis of purely economic factors, other variables will be incorporated such as those relating to sociopolitical instability, the business operating context, and the existence of an export-oriented policy. The methodology that we have chosen recognises the importance of economic elements as well as that of sociopolitical elements, especially with regard to countries in the process of development, transition, and reform, such as China.

There exists a broad consensus that foreign direct investment (FDI) occurs when three determining factors exist: the presence of specific competitive advantages, which are the property of a multinational company; the existence of specific advantages of locating in the country receiving the investment; and the presence of greater commercial advantages at the intracompany level. While the first and third conditions are specific business factors affecting FDI, the second is specific to location and exerts a crucial influence on the flow of direct investment towards the receiving country. If only the first condition exists, companies tend to focus on exportation, licensing, or the sale of patents to attend to the foreign market. If the third condition also exists, FDI begins to be the preferred model, but only when specific advantages of location are also present. When all three conditions exist, the factors of location are the only ones that can be directly influenced by governments of those countries receiving direct investment from abroad. In order to explain the differences in the flows of investment between different countries and to formulate policies designed to attract FDI, we must not only understand how and why multinational companies elect certain countries or zones for such investment but also the manner in which these multinationals act. The analytic approach that we have chosen to use in this paper is similar to that employed in macroeconomic studies. Although many such studies have discovered the importance of economic determinants, there exists no consensus about those. Along with purely economic elements, many authors, among them Singh and Jun (1995), have emphasised the importance of political and institutional questions as determining factors in FDI. Although each theoretical and analytical approach provides a partial vision of the complexity of the flows of FDI, there does not yet exist an integrated theory that combines these elements in an analytical manner. We have attempted to overcome this significant limitation by proposing an integrated analytical approach that explains the FDI directed towards China and by pointing out not only economic factors but also the important role of variables associated with political stability and with the environment within which companies must function. The empirical research that we have utilised is centred, therefore, on producing models of macroeconomic and sociopolitical factors that affect the flow of FDI to China. In Section 2, we review the recent literature dealing with theoretical and empirical aspects of FDI. In the Section 3, we propose an interpretative model derived from an integrated focus on economic policy of the FDI in China. Together with the analysis of purely economic factors, we incorporate variables associated with sociopolitical instability, with the conditions in which companies must do business and with an export-oriented stance. Finally, we present our conclusions.

The principal conclusions of the empirical investigation included in our study stem from a methodological focus in which both macroeconomic determinants and sociopolitical factors that bear upon the flow of direct foreign investment towards China are taken into account. And although there are no simple models or solid theoretical fundaments that guide the empirical analysis of these questions, we have based our study at least in part on the results of past studies, principally on the study of Singh and Jun (1995). In this analysis, besides the traditional economic variables, we include other variables of a sociopolitical nature as factors that can affect the flows of FDI that are directed towards China. Among these, we can point out sociopolitical instability, the business operating context, and the degree to which the economy is geared towards export markets. We also include other variables as controls in order to verify our hypotheses. These include the size of the market, labour costs, exchange rates, the characteristics of the investor's country of origin, the relative importance of the exports sector in the country receiving investment, and the amount of FDI during preceding period. The methodology that we elected recognises the importance of both these economic factors and the sociopolitical elements mentioned, especially in a country that is going through a process of development, transition, and reform, as is China. From the previous evidence, and according to our empirical evidence, we can point out the political implications that can be extracted from the analyses carried out, in our case, for China. The following are policies that may encourage potential investors: - On an internal level: Increase political stability and improve the conditions in which companies must operate, without ignoring the program of improvement of the basic economic characteristics such as the GDP, the GDP per capita, the growth of GDP, especially since these are the factors that will contribute to consolidating FDI. - On an external level: Intensify all policies promoting economic openness, from commercial policies to those regulating FDI. We must keep in mind that whichever interpretative model of FDI we use, it may be altered from a dynamic point of view. This is even true so in the case of a country that is in the process of developing and with good economic prospects, such as China. An initial interpretative focus based on investing in order to export can be complemented with a second focus on investing in order to sell in the internal market—the home market of the foreign investors having been saturated—and in this manner consolidate FDI for the future.