تجارت، شرکت های خارجی و سیاست های اقتصادی در تولید اندونزی و تایلند

This paper first examines the rapid growth and changing composition of manufactured exports in Indonesia and Thailand, highlighting the rapid growth of office and computer machinery and electric machinery, somewhat slower growth of non-electric and transportation machinery, as well as the low growth of previously large exports of textiles apparel. Second, the important contributions of foreign multinational enterprises (MNEs) to export growth in the machinery industries, particularly in electric, office, and computing machinery, are documented. Third, the paper describes trade policies in all these industries in some detail, emphasizing how low protection was a key facilitator of rapid export growth in the MNEs that dominated the electric, office, and computing machinery industry, while high protection reduced incentives to export among MNEs in the transportation machinery industry.

The surge in exports of manufactured goods from Indonesia and Thailand that occurred in the late 1980s through the mid-1990s coincided with a sharp increase in foreign direct investment (FDI) in both countries. Several previous studies have indicated that multinational enterprises (MNEs) were the source of a large portion of the surge in manufactured exports and made important contributions to changes in export composition.1 Trade policies both within these two countries and in countries to which they export also played an important role in the change in composition and growth of manufactured exports. Despite a slowdown in export growth that began in 1996 and continued into 1998 with the Asian financial crisis, neither country reversed its export-oriented trade-liberalizing reforms. After the crisis, many MNEs expanded their operations in Indonesia despite large withdrawals of net FDI (Takii & Ramstetter, 2005), and there was a boom of new FDI in Thailand in 1997–2001 (International Monetary Fund, 2005). In this paper, we explore the changes in exports and revealed comparative advantage in manufacturing industries in Thailand and Indonesia (Section 2) and document the role of MNEs in this process over the period 1987–2002 (Section 3). Then we detail the nature of trade policies in the industries studied (Section 4), focusing on how trade policy regimes have influenced MNE exporting behavior across industries.

MNEs have played a significant role in structural changes observed in manufacturing exports for both Thailand and Indonesia. This study has documented the shift in the pattern of manufacturing trade from light industries towards electrical and non-electrical machinery, and has provided evidence that MNEs have been significant players in this process. Trade policy in both countries has generally become more outward-oriented, and even the Asian financial crisis did not reverse this tendency. This suggests that MNEs will continue to play a significant role in the development of manufacturing and exports in these important Southeast Asian economies. In the future, trade preferences arising from regional and bilateral trade agreements may influence MNE investment decisions and alter global and regional trade patterns in manufacturing.