حساب های CO2 برای اقتصاد باز : تولید و یا مسئولیت های مصرف کننده؟

International negotiations of reducing CO2 emissions address the question of how to account annual CO2 emissions. For open economies like Denmark facing national CO2 targets import and export of commodities influence the total accounted CO2 emissions. In this article we demonstrate the consequences of using two basic accounting principles: a production versus a consumption principle. The distinction between the two principles is whether the producer or the consumer is responsible for the CO2 emitted. By subtracting total emissions based on the two accounting principles we develop the concept of a “CO2 trade balance”. Using Denmark as a case, we show that from 1989 to 1994 the CO2 trade balance has changed dramatically turning into a deficit of 7 million tonnes from a surplus of 0.5 million tonnes in 1987. Consequently, it has become more difficult to reach the national CO2 target as an increasing part of emissions from Danish territory is caused by foreign demand.

In Kyoto, December 1997, an international agreement has been reached on reducing global CO2 emissions to the atmosphere. Most of the European countries including EU as a whole have agreed to cut back CO2 emissions by 8% in the period 2008–2012 compared to the level in 1990,1 cf. United Nations (1997).2 Besides the amount of reduction to be carried out and the choice of reference years much attention in international climate negotiations has been given to what means to use in order to reach the national targets. Attention has also been given to questions of efficiency, i.e. joint implementation and tradeable permits. However, only very few have addressed the question: How to account national CO2 emissions for open economies considering the embodiment of CO2 in international trade? International trade has an increasing influence on the ability to fulfil national CO2 targets as a significant amount of CO2 is embodied in goods traded internationally, cf. Wyckoff and Roop (1994). The issue of energy and CO2 embodied in international trade has also been addressed in studies by e.g Lenzen (1998) and Battjes et al. (1998).3 Trade has an impact on national CO2 emissions as the production of CO2 intensive goods for export is charged to the national CO2 account. Contrary to this the import of goods is charged to the CO2 accounts in foreign producer countries. Open economies facing national CO2 targets and having a big net export of CO2 intensive goods therefore have to make an extra effort to reduce domestic CO2 emissions. The embodiment of CO2 in goods traded internationally points to the question of who is responsible for emitting CO2 to the atmosphere and which accounting principle it is appropriate to use. In this article we address the question: Who is responsible for emitting CO2 to the atmosphere — the consumer or the producer? We develop two basic models for calculating national CO2 emissions depending on whether the production or consumption approach is used. Based on these two models we develop the concept of a CO2 trade balance showing the difference in CO2 emissions embodied in total import and export. Further, we estimate the models and the CO2 trade balance for an open economy exemplified by Denmark. The methodologies developed in this article obviously have policy applications. Considering international CO2 negotiations the methodologies stress the importance of using appropriate national CO2 measures. Figures like annual CO2 produced per unit of GDP or per capita could be misleading for open economies having a big net export of CO2 intensive goods. This suggests the need to expand the accounting of CO2 emissions to include CO2 embodied in imported non-energy goods. In negotiating the burden sharing of future CO2 reductions the methodologies can be used to eliminate the problems of choosing a fair base year level in which domestic CO2 emissions are not too much affected by imbalances in foreign trade. Taking such imbalances in foreign trade into account might reduce the reluctance of some open economies having trade balance problems to accept such kinds of agreements. Considering national policy means for CO2 reduction the consumer CO2 accounting principle gives additional information to decision makers about the CO2 impact of consumer habits. Thereby “bad” consumer habits are highlighting pointing at introducing CO2 reduction means which are directed towards the consumer, e.g labelling and information campaigns. The content of this article is as follows: Section 2 gives a brief description of the accounting principles to be analysed, i.e. the production approach, the consumption approach and the actual Danish approach. In Section 3 data and data sources are described. A model framework for empirical analysis based on input–output analysis is developed in Section 4. The results from using the model are shown in Section 5. The results consist of Danish CO2 accounts for 1994 and a CO2 trade balance for the period 1966–1994. Section 6 summarises the conclusions.

The embodiment of CO2 in goods traded internationally points to the question: Who is responsible for emitting CO2 to the atmosphere — the consumer or the producer? In this article we developed two models for calculating national CO2 emissions depending on whether a production or consumption approach is used. The production accounting model considers the CO2 emissions from domestic production (including production for export) whereas the consumption accounting model considers the CO2 emissions caused by domestic consumption (including emissions in countries producing the imported commodities). Based on these two models we developed the concept of a CO2 trade balance showing the difference in CO2 emissions embodied in total import and export. The case of Denmark illustrates that a significant amount of CO2 is embodied in foreign trade. It also illustrates that there is an inherent conflict between a national CO2 target for domestic CO2 emissions and the aim of improving the foreign trade balance. The concept of a CO2 trade balance could have implications for future negotiations on CO2 reduction strategies, which might call for a reliable methodology for assessing greenhouse gases embodied in international trade. Especially countries with net CO2 exports might push this issue. This suggests the need to expand the accounting of CO2 emissions to include CO2 embodied in imported non-energy goods. In negotiating the burden sharing of future CO2 reductions the methodologies can be used to eliminate the problems of choosing a fair base year level. It is not quite reasonable that CO2 targets should be founded in a base year in which the trade balance had a significant influence on national emissions. Taking such imbalances into account in foreign trade might reduce the reluctance of some open economies to accept such kinds of agreements.