تنظیم دستمزد محکم و جدی و اثر یک شوک عرضه، سیاستهای پولی و مالی در اقتصاد چین توسط تجزیه و تحلیل CGE

The purpose of this paper is to present a computable general equilibrium (CGE) model of the Chinese economy which includes rigid wage-setting and integration of real and financial sectors, and to apply it to a quantitative evaluation of the oil price changes and the fiscal and monetary policies. The policy simulation shows whether the wage rate is flexible or rigid is crucial for the evaluation of various policy measures. Furthermore, the fields of application of the model are extended from the industry-related problems to the macroscopic ones such as inflation, stabilization policies and so on.

There is a long tradition in economics of theorizing about markets for labor, goods and financial assets in general equilibrium. More recently, the use of numerically based computable general equilibrium models for research and policy simulation has grown rapidly. However, few numerical models explicitly include rigid wage-setting and financial market. In this paper we present an initial attempt at filling this gap, in the context of oil price changes and the fiscal and monetary policies formation for China. The model attempts to explicitly introduce financial aspects into a multi-sector general equilibrium model and to capture interactions between real and monetary phenomena in a rigid wage-setting way under the general equilibrium setting. In his previous paper (Li, 2006), the author has presented a CGE model of the Chinese economy focusing mainly on the real industrial sectors. The model covers markets for products, labor and foreign exchanges but not for financial assets (under an implicit assumption that financial markets are all cleared a priori in some way or others). As a result, only quantities, real values and relative prices are determined in the model, leaving absolute levels of values and prices undetermined. The model in this paper, on the other hand, attempts to explicitly introduce financial aspects into the multi-sector general equilibrium model and to capture interactions between real and monetary phenomena in a more rigorous way. The absolute price level is now determined endogenously in the model and the field of application of the model can be extended from the industry-related problems to the macroscopic ones such as inflation, stabilization policies and so on. CGE models are now widely used, mainly by World Bank, for the analysis of development planning and policies in the developing countries. The CGE model of China in this paper owes its theoretical framework at the starting point to one of the World Bank studies: Dervis et al. (1982). The Chinese model here, however, includes a different approach to the labor market, an elaboration in the distribution and expenditure sides of GDP, and an extension1 in the determination of exchange rate and price level, the last of which is closely related to the endogenous treatment of the financial sector.2 It should be emphasized that the Chinese model here fully utilizes the data and methodological framework of the SNA (System of National Accounts), which is a synthesis of the five major accounts or statistics for the national economy: input–output tables (2007), national income accounts, balance of payment accounts, flow of funds tables and national balance sheets. There exist at least three econometric models of the multi-sector general equilibrium type for the developing economy: Tsujimura and Kuroda (1981), and Saito (1983), Bernanke et al. (1996), and Smets and Wouters (2003, 2008). The first one is the pioneering studies in this field made in the early seventies, while the second is an attempt to extend the 1973 version by allowing for monetary behaviors and the financial sector. The last two are attempt to build a DSGE model (Dynamic Stochastic General Equilibrium, DSGE) by introducing wage stickiness based on BGG model which already reflects both price stickiness and financial accelerate effect. They are all carefully made empirical studies. The model in this paper may be said to be an extensional version of these studies in the sense that empirical rigorousness is sacrificed for theoretical preciseness and operational simplicity (as is the case in most CGE studies).3 The CGE model of Chinese here depends exclusively on 2007 Input–output Tables (so far which is the latest version) for the data of industrial productions and expenditure allocations, so that 2007 is the bench mark year in the model for which the economy is assumed to be in equilibrium. The model disaggregates the economy into thirteen industrial sectors (see Table 1 in Appendix) according to the IO Tables with a special treatment for energy related industries and banking and insurance,4 on the one hand, and five institutional sectors (see Table 2 in Appendix) which correspond exactly to the NAS classification, on the other. The CGE model of Chinese assumes CES production functions for the 13 industries mentioned above. The model employs CET functions in aggregating imports and domestic products into composite goods for each of the 13 industries. The model assumes further a Cobb–Douglas utility function (in addition to a constant saving rate) for the households sector in deriving consumption demand disaggregated for each industry. In other words, elasticities of substitution are all set equal to one between production factors, between imported and domestically produced goods, and between consumption goods, resulting in the functional parameters to be estimated by appropriate shares in 2007. The model in this paper, therefore, describes the economy of China as the one with unitary elasticity of substitution, assuming it to be in equilibrium for the bench mark year 2007. The structure and characteristics of the Chinese CGE model will be discussed in detail in Section 2. The performance of the model will be checked for the benchmark year in Section 3. In the same section, the model will be applied to a quantitative evaluation on the impacts of oil price changes, the fiscal and monetary policies, and the direct policy measures to reduce trade surpluses. In Section 4, concluding remarks will be given.

The CGE model of the Chinese economy presented here has a wide applicability to various policy problems not only in the industry level but also in the aggregate national level, dealing with each of the problems from both levels in a consistent framework. This is possible since the model has a firm basis on the data and methodological framework of the SNA. The financial sector, in particular, may be emphasized as a key element in the present model, without which the model can neither determine the absolute level of prices nor analyze the monetary aspects of the economy such as inflation. The present model which includes rigid wage-setting and integration of real and financial sectors, and we apply it to the analysis of comparative statics under various external shocks, resulting in reasonable implications in each case. Comparative statics for other years or comparative dynamics for successive years are possible based on the present model, but not attempted yet due to the data problems in exogenous variables and parameters. It is difficult to get data directly for the exogenous variables of industry level in the years other than the benchmark. Among others, technological change in each industry is crucial in the dynamic context. A further elaboration of the model as well as a careful work on the data base are, therefore, necessary toward the optimal dynamic application of the present model, which is the next step in the author's CGE study of the Chinese economy.