تأملاتی در کمک های میلتون فریدمن برای باز کردن پول اقتصاد / کلان

Friedman's central contributions to open economy macroeconomics are contained in his essay “The Case for Flexible Exchange Rates.” The paper describes equilibrium in an open economy in terms of the flow market for domestic currency, and so presents the basic elements of The Monetary Approach to the Balance of Payments, which Mundell and Johnson developed later in the decade. An application of the argument includes the first definitive statement of the criteria which one finds in the literature on Optimum Currency Areas. The essay's model, in a better specified, more modern form, reappears in A Monetary History (with Anna Schwartz), where it serves as a basis for detailed analysis of particular episodes and as a framework for empirical work which continues to this day.

Milton Friedman has been widely recognized for his promotion in the early post-war period of the view that “money does matter,” both for short-run fluctuations in output and for long-run impacts on the rate of inflation. The effects of the Great Depression and the theoretical framework provided by the Keynesian Revolution during the preceding decades had downplayed the importance of monetary factors.1 Friedman was in the vanguard in reasserting their effects, and most economists have now found his argument to be persuasive in the context of a closed economy. We claim here that Friedman made contributions to open economy macro analysis which are comparable in their impact, but have gone unrecognized, because their influence was not acknowledged. His early “essay” (Friedman, 1953b), The Case for Flexible Exchange Rates, focuses on the “monetary phenomena” which he felt are the chief source of balance of payments problems. This work as well restores the important function played by price level changes, but now in the context of the classical international monetary mechanism.2 He argues that private sector behavior would automatically restore international payments balance, if not frustrated by autonomous policy actions by the authorities. He points out that often a faster and smoother resolution of an imbalance would be obtained if it was “promptly offset by a movement in the exchange rate.” In recognizing the essentially monetary natures of the balance of payments and of exchange rate changes, Friedman anticipated the Monetary Approach to the Balance of Payments, which flourished at the University of Chicago under Johnson and Mundell. In addition, the essay contains the first definitive statement of the criteria for an Optimum Currency Area in much the same form in which it appears in the subsequent literature on the subject. Ironically, the title of the paper appears to have misled many readers into thinking that Friedman's endorsement of flexible exchange rates was unqualified.3 More accurately, the essay is a policy memorandum designed to assert the viability of a flexible exchange rate regime, placing it on an equal footing with a rigidly fixed exchange rate. The essay provides numerous further insights concerning: pegged-but-adjustable exchange rate systems; elasticity pessimism; destabilizing speculation; the policy trilemma; and exchange rate overshooting. In this early work the model is tenuous, but more precise specification of it is provided in his book with Anna Schwartz (Friedman and Schwartz, 1963), A Monetary History of the United States, 1867–1960. This is a monumental contribution which elucidates episodes in US experience, many of which had international repercussions during the ninety-four years which it covers. It contains solid empirical work, for example, on purchasing power parity, which continues to inspire researchers today. These two pieces have had so much influence on the way in which the open economy macromodel has developed that Friedman must be seen as a giant in the field.

Friedman's main work on open economy money/macro can be found in his classic essay and in his book with Anna Schwartz. Neither of these sources has earned Friedman many citations in the international financial literature, although the contributions which his writings have made there are substantial. Friedman's essay contains the first definitive statement of the criteria which one finds in the Optimum Currency Areas literature. This means that that literature constitutes a repetition and extension of his formulation, rather than being a response to his promotion of flexible exchange rates. In addition, the argument in the essay is consistent with its being the basis for the Monetary Approach to the Balance of Payments, since it deals with monetary phenomena in a context in which there are automatic adjustment mechanisms in response to international imbalances. Furthermore, insights that appear in the essay have been incorporated into the literature without acknowledgement. These include diverse topics: pegged-but-adjustable exchange rate regimes, which Bretton Woods exemplifies; elasticity pessimism; destabilizing speculation under flexible exchange rates; the Policy Trilemma; and possible overshooting of the exchange rate. Friedman's work has been underrated by the profession, and some modern researchers have engaged in unnecessary repetition of his theoretical results. The original unabridged essay could usefully be reprinted in an accessible form, so that a wider readership can appreciate the insights which it contains. The result will be that Friedman's work in the open economy will be recognized as having had a major impact. His contributions to the development of the open economy macromodel have been enormous.