پیری جمعیت، تخصیص زمان و سرمایه انسانی : تجزیه و تحلیل تعادل عمومی برای کانادا

This study explores the long-term impact of population ageing on labour supply and human capital investment in Canada, as well as the induced effects on productive capacity. The analysis is conducted with a dynamic computable overlapping generations model where in the spirit of Becker [Becker, Gary (1965), A theory of the allocation of time, The Economic Journal, Vol. 75, pp. 493–517.] and Heckman [Heckman, James (1976), A life-cycle model of earnings, learning and consumption, The Quarterly Journal of Economics, Vol. 84, pp. 511–544], leisure has a quality-time feature and labour supply and human capital investment decisions are endogenous. The role of human capital in the growth process is based on the framework used by Mankiw et al. [Mankiw, N. Gregory, Romer, David and Weil, David N. (1992), A contribution to the empirics of economic growth, Quarterly Journal of Economics, Vol. 107, no. 2, pp. 407–437]. The paper indicates that population ageing creates more opportunities for young individuals to invest in human capital and supply more skilled labour at middle age. Consequently, the reduction in labour supply of young adults initially lowers productive capacity and exacerbates the economic costs of population ageing. However, current and future middle-age cohorts are more skilled and work more, which eventually raises productive capacity and significantly lowers the cost of population ageing. Finally, these results suggest that the recent increase in the participation rate of older workers might be the beginning of a new trend that will amplify over the next decades.

With the decline in the fertility rate, increase in life-expectancy and ageing of the baby boom generation, the growth in labour force population is slowing in Canada and most OECD countries. According to recent demographic projections and despite immigration, the Canadian elderly dependency ratio (ratio of population 65+ as a proportion of the 15–64 population) is expected to at least double between 2000 and 2050. From one individual aged 65+ for five worker-age individuals in 2000, this ratio will rise to 2/5 in 2050. The slowing in labour force growth being inevitable, the long-term consequences on growth in productive capacity could be substantial if it is not compensated by a significant rise in productivity.1 The increase in relative scarcity of labour caused by population ageing could also lead to a reduction in national savings, an increase in physical capital intensity, an increase in real wages and a reduction in world interest rates.2 However, most studies so far have ignored the effect of population ageing on time allocation, more specifically on time spent at work and in human capital formation.3 This paper argues that since population ageing is expected to lead to significant changes in production factor returns, these effects and their potential impact on productive capacity could be important. Several factors can be considered to compensate for the decline in labour force growth. First, since the return to human capital is the discounted sum of future wage revenues, future young cohorts might be inclined to invest more in education. Second, a greater participation of middle-age and older workers may arise as a consequence of the increase in real wage pressures. Third, current cohorts of young adults are better educated than older cohorts (young women in particular). These combined factors would lead to a rise in the quality of the workforce, in productivity and to an increase in hours worked. This paper uses a dynamic applied general equilibrium model with overlapping generations and endogenous time-allocation decisions to explore the relationship between population ageing, human capital and labour supply. Two simulation experiments are undertaken. The first simulation performed examines the long-term economic and labour market impact of population ageing in Canada by assuming that time-allocation decisions are exogenous. The second simulation applies the same demographic shock, but this time with endogenous time-allocation decisions. The difference between the two scenarios will isolate the contribution of endogenous labour supply and human capital investment decisions on productive capacity in the context of demographic changes. More specifically, the second simulation will explore to what extent the demographic shock observed since the 1960s and 1970s could explain the stylised facts on labour supply and human capital investment by cohort during the 1980s and 1990s and evaluate the long-term impact of more educated cohorts of workers on productive capacity. The paper is structured as follows. Section 2 provides a few stylised facts on historical and projected future demographic changes. Section 3 presents an overview on the relationship between human capital and growth. Section 4 discusses the possible relationship between population ageing and human capital. Section 5 describes the technical structure of the model used for the analysis and Section 6 the calibration procedure. Section 7 presents the main simulation results. Finally, Section 8 raises some policy implications and concludes.

In this paper, we have explored the transitional and long-term impact of population ageing on labour supply and human capital investment in Canada. More specifically, we have examined to what extent the demographic shock observed since the 1960s and 1970s can explain the behaviour of labour supply and human capital investment during the 1980s and 1990s. We have also evaluated the long-term impact of more educated cohorts of workers on productive capacity. The analysis is made using a dynamic CGE overlapping generations model. Our results provide an explanation to the significant rise in the level of education over the past 25 years. Beginning in the 1980s and 1990s, population ageing induces new incentives for young individuals with rational expectations to invest more in education at young age and supply better skilled labour later during their life. Secondly, by spending more time in education, the reduction in labour supply of young adults initially lowers productive capacity and exacerbates the economic costs of population ageing. According to the model, we are currently bearing the cost of population ageing through lower labour supply from young adults. However, current and future cohorts of middle-age workers are more skilled and work more, which eventually will raise productive capacity and significantly lower the economic cost of population ageing. Hence, accumulation of human capital is a powerful smoothing mechanism: neglecting this is bound to lead to substantial overestimation of the economic costs of ageing. Thirdly, over the past few years, we have observed a significant increase in the participation rate of older workers. Some may argue that the effect is temporary and reflects the recent reduction in stock market performance on the retirement behaviour.10 The results from this paper suggest instead that the recent increase in the participation rate of older workers might be the beginning of a new trend from more educated workers that will amplify over the next few decades. It is important to stress that all this is conditional on agents being rational and endowed with perfect foresight. There is a risk that young individuals are less rational and/or more myopic then assumed here, so that they could underestimate future earnings, assuming them to remain close to those of current older workers. The government has here an important role to play, in order to ensure that current young and future cohorts have complete information before they make a choice between higher education and the job market. If they make the right choice, the economic cost of population ageing could be modest. If not, the cost will be much greater and lead to much slower growth in living standards for future generations.