اثرات برنامه ریزی بخش برق عرضه و طرف تقاضا با گزینه های مدیریت طرف تقاضا و محدودیت های انتشار SO2

This paper examines the implications of SO2 emission mitigation constraints in the power sector planning in Indonesia—a developing country—during 2003–2017 from a long term integrated resource planning perspective. A decomposition model is developed to assess the contributions of supply- and demand-side effects to the total changes in CO2, SO2 and NOx emissions from the power sector due to constraints on SO2 emissions. The results of the study show that both the supply- and demand-side effects would act towards the reduction of CO2, SO2 and NOx emissions. However, the supply-side effect would play the dominant role in emission mitigations from the power sector in Indonesia. The average incremental SO2 abatement cost would increase from US$ 970 to US$ 1271 per ton of SO2, while electricity price would increase by 2–18% if the annual SO2 emission reduction target is increased from 10% to 25%.

Developing countries in Asia have experienced fast growing emission of regional air pollutants during the last years of the 20th century. Streets et al. (2000) noted that between 1990 and 1997, the regional annual average growth rate for SO2 emission in Southeast Asia was 6.0%, 5.2% in the Indian subcontinent and 1.1% in East Asia. Shrestha and Marpaung (1998) estimated that between 1990 and 2000, the annual average growth rate for SO2 emission in Indonesia was about 5.7%. Without additional control measures, Shah et al. (2000) predicted that in 2020, the SO2 emission in Asia would be 111 million tonnes, i.e., about three times the 1990 level. The rapid growth rates of the SO2 emissions were mainly due to the heavy usage of fossil fuels (i.e., about 80% of energy consumption in Asia), such as coal and oil. Of the total SO2 produced in 1990, the contribution of power sector was about 30% in Asia as a whole (Shrestha et al., 1996). Hence, development of the power sector to contain local and regional level pollutant emissions within a predetermined level is becoming an increasingly interesting issue for countries in the region. There are few studies examining the implications of constraining SO2 emissions in the power sector (see, e.g., Malcolm and Anandalingam, 2000; Spens and Lee, 1997; Zhijun and Kuby, 1997; Chowdury, 1996; Cooper et al., 1996; Hobbs and Centolella, 1995; Hobbs, 1993; Amagai and Leung, 1989). However, none of them discussed the relative importance of supply- and demand-side effects on total changes in pollutant emissions. Shrestha and Marpaung (2002) examined the supply- and demand-side effects in power sector development in Indonesia from a long term integrated resource planning (IRP) perspective considering both supply- and demand-side options. However, the study focused on effects of CO2 emission constraints in the power sector and did not consider SO2 emission targets. This study analyzes the implications of SO2 emission reduction targets for power sector planning in Indonesia—a developing country—during 2003–2017 in terms of generation-mix, capacity-mix, demand-side management (DSM) mix, overall thermal generation efficiency, and reliability of the power system from a long term IRP perspective. It also examines the supply- and demand-side contributions to total changes in CO2, SO2 and NOx emissions due to annual SO2 emission targets in the power sector. Furthermore, it computes SO2 abatement costs and electricity prices in the presence of SO2 emission constraints. This paper is organized as follows: A brief description of the power sector in Indonesia is presented in Section 2, followed by a description of the methodology in Section 3. Section 4 discusses input data and assumptions used. Utility supply-side planning and demand-side implications of SO2 constraints are discussed in 5 and 6, respectively. The roles of supply- and demand-side effects on CO2, SO2 and NOx emission changes due to SO2 mitigation targets are assessed in Section 7, followed by a discussion of economic implications (Section 8). Key findings and final remarks are presented in Section 9.

This paper has presented the implications of constraining SO2 emissions for power sector development and emissions of CO2, SO2 and NOx during the period 2003–2017 from a long term IRP perspective. An approached has been developed to examine the effect of changes in the fuel- and technology-mixes in the supply side (i.e., supply-side effect) and that of the change in electricity demand due to the adoption of DSM programs (demand-side effect) on the total changes in pollutant emissions. The study shows that the share of coal with FGD and natural gas in power generation would increase would increase from 9% to 23% and from 7% to 8%, respectively, if the annual SO2 mitigation target which is applied to the Indonesian power sector is increased from 10% to 25%, while that of coal would decrease would decrease from 73% to 58%. Furthermore, the weighted average overall thermal generation efficiency would increase from 38.3% to 41.7% at the selected SO2 emission reduction targets and power system reliability would also improve slightly. The overall power plant capacity utilization factor is found to deteriorate with the emission reduction targets. From the decomposition analyses, it is found that both the supply-side and demand-side effects would contribute towards the reduction of the total changes in CO2, SO2 and NOx emissions in Indonesia. However, the contribution of the supply-side effect is found to be much higher than that of the demand-side effect due to the limited number of DSM options considered. The average incremental cost of SO2 abatement is found to increase from US$ 970 to US$ 1271/ton of SO2 if the annual SO2 emission mitigation target is increased from 10 to 25%. With these selected annual SO2 emission mitigation targets, the electricity price in Indonesia would increase from 2% to 18%. It should be noted here that we have not considered the feed-back effects (also called “rebound effect”, see e.g., Khazzoom, 1987) of changes in electricity price resulting from SO2 emission reduction targets. We intend to analyze this issue in a future study. Furthermore, we have not considered the effects of simultaneously introducing SO2 and other pollutants (e.g., CO2 or NOx) emission constraints in power generation. The results are likely to be different if different pollutant emission constraints are imposed simultaneously.