بررسی عرضه و تقاضای اتاق هتل در لاس وگاس : مدل معادلات همزمان

The Las Vegas Strip has seen astonishing tourism development in the 1990s. The study examined the inter-relationship between the room supply and demand functions, and room rate in Las Vegas employing econometric variables in a simultaneous framework during 1992–1999. The results suggest that room rate for the current month, the 3-month Treasury bill rate and gaming revenue per room for the 12-month prior are the three determinants of the room supply function, while consumer price index for the current month is the only determinant of the room demand function.

The Las Vegas Strip has seen astonishing tourism development in the 1990s. Building boom of the “Steve Wynn” style mega resorts has swept Las Vegas from the early 1990s and revamped the image of the city from a gambler's paradise to a family-oriented entertainment and vacation destination. The 3044-room Mirage opened in late 1989 and started the series of hotel construction on the Strip for the next decade. As seen in Fig. 1, room inventory in Las Vegas increased dramatically from 76,523 rooms in 1992 to 120,294 in 1999 (Las Vegas Convention and Visitor Authority “LVCVA”, 2004). As a result, Las Vegas in terms of total room inventory tops all other metropolitans in the US, followed by Orlando, Los Angeles, Atlanta and Chicago (PCMA, 2004). Room demand in terms of room occupancy in Las Vegas has appeared keeping paced with room supply during the same period. Occupancy percentage levels have averaged in the mid-80% range during 1992–1999 (see Fig. 1) and could be attributed to the growing number of visitors to Las Vegas. Visitor volume grew from 22 million to almost 34 million between 1992 and 1999, and a tremendous boost of visitor dollar contribution was also observed from $14.7 billion in 1992 to $28.6 billion in 1999 (LVCVA, 2004) (Fig. 2). Room tax revenue earned by LVCVA increased more than two folds from $52.3 million to $118.3 million during 1992–1999 (LVCVA, 2004). The increase and fluctuation in room tax revenue may be the result of the inter-relationship between the room supply and demand. As economy theory suggests, room rate in Las Vegas should be jointly determined by the supply and demand and is set at equilibrium where quantity supplied equals quantity demanded. The purpose of the study is to examine the inter-relationship between the room supply and demand functions, and room rate in Las Vegas during 1992–1999 from an econometric perspective. The results of the study can provide hotel operators and tourism administrators a better picture of what drives huge tourism development in terms of the room supply and demand in Las Vegas, and offer them alternative guidance in promoting Las Vegas according to the changes in economic indicators.

The inter-relationship between room supply and demand plays an important role on room rate, hence affecting a hotel's bottom-line profit. Some econometric variables were found to affect the room supply and demand in Las Vegas. The results show that the room supply for Las Vegas is influenced by room rate for the current month, the 3-month Treasury bill rate and gaming revenue per room for the 12-month prior [i.e. month (j-12)]. While Pj influences room supply by moving along the supply function, T-billj-12 and GRPRj-12 shift the supply function to the right. Hotel operators in Las Vegas have kept adding more rooms despite the hiking interest rate possibly due to prosperous tourism outlook. The growth of gaming revenue per room signals that possibly more gaming revenue can be earned with room additions. Log(CPIj) was found a significantly positive determinant of the room demand for Las Vegas. While other goods and services are considered relatively more expensive than the travel products offered by Las Vegas, tourists tend to visit and stay in Las Vegas. Econometric variables affecting either the room supply or demand functions simultaneously can possibly serve as parameters in decision-making for corporate strategies and marketing tactics. For example, low CPIj makes products offered by Las Vegas not seem as inexpensive as other goods and services, hence weaker tourism and room demand; special marketing promotions could be dispatched to stimulate visitation to Las Vegas, hence increase of additional tourism and room demand.