Facing multiple pressures, including its commitment to energy efficiency improvement, the current worldwide recession, and global warming concerns, China is making great efforts to maintain its continuous economic growth and reduce pollutant emissions. Many policies to encourage investing in energy efficiency and renewable energy have been issued. This article provides insights into the latest development of energy production, energy consumption and energy strategic planning and policies in China, and also describes the analysis, carried out by the authors as part of the Asian Energy Security project using the Long-range Energy Alternatives Planning (LEAP) modeling tool, of the impacts of implementing new and expected energy and environmental policies.
As the largest industrializing nation, China—here meaning the Chinese Mainland—receives global attention in a number of areas related to energy use, including its growing demand for energy as a consequence of its rising economic power, its increasing imports of energy, particularly petroleum, and its greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions.
China has experienced rapid growth in energy consumption in the recent years. Large amounts of investment have been provided for the power industry and for oil stockpile facility construction to secure energy supplies to support rapid economic growth. Meanwhile, the Chinese government is making great efforts to improve energy efficiency and reduce pollutant emissions in order to reduce the pressure from environmental impacts both locally and globally.
Environmental issues will be a, and perhaps the, major factor influencing future energy development and consumption in China. China already is experiencing serious environmental problems that are caused by energy activities, especially air pollution from industrial, transportation, and residential fuels combustion. Even with continued development of nuclear and renewable energy, coal will still account for about 43% of total energy supply in 2020. The environmental impacts of this continued coal use will be very large, and stringent policies will be needed to reduce those impacts.
As economic development in China continues, environmental problems in general will worsen with the projected rapid increases in energy consumption. To realize China’s sustainable development, the national energy development strategy includes an energy conservation priority policy, and at the same time is vigorously developing renewable energy and new energy in China. A cleaner energy system and energy development strategy are needed, and should be established through government involvement leading to changes in all production processes and lifestyles through the applications of laws, regulations, and fiscal policies. Vehicle emission problems in particular require special attention, especially those associated with increases in freight and passenger transport energy consumption.
In this article, we have reported on the development and analysis of a BAU energy scenario, and two alternative scenarios focusing on changes in the rate of nuclear power development. That the two nuclear scenarios result in only very modest changes in national greenhouse gas emissions through 2030 suggests that additional and much more aggressive policies than are modeled in these scenarios will be needed if China is to substantially reduce the rate of growth of its greenhouse gas emissions, and to address other energy-related environmental problems. In future project work, we intend to evaluate the impacts, including relative costs and environmental performance, of advanced Chinese energy sector policies such as more stringent energy efficiency measures, more aggressive implementation of renewable energy, and energy conservation through, for example, shifting of transport modes, as well as regional cooperation projects involving conventional, nuclear, and renewable energy resources.
