Rationality of survey based inflation expectations: A study of 18 emerging economies’ inflation forecasts
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انتظارات در تعیین تورم نقش مهمی بازی می کند. اگر فعالان اقتصادی پیش بینی کنند که قیمت ها افزایش خواهد یافت، آنها این انتظارات را در مذاکرات و چانه زنی های دستمزد خود و تعدیل قیمت قراردادها (از قبیل افزایش اجاره مسکن) وارد می کنند. این رفتار تا حدودی تورم دوره بعد را تعیین می کند؛ به محض اینکه قراردادها عمل شوند و دستمزدها و قیمتها طبق توافق افزایش یابند، انتظارات محقق می شوند و تا آن حد که مردم انتظارات خویش را براساس گذشته اخیر قرار دهند، تورم الگوهای مشابهی را طی زمان دنبال خواهد کرد و منجر به ماندگاری تورم می شود.
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