سهم بخش حمل و نقل در کاهش تغییرات آب و هوایی: بینش از یک مدل حمل و نقل جهانی مسافر همراه با یک مدل تعادل عمومی محاسبه

A passenger transport model, Asia-pacific Integrated Model (AIM)/Transport, incorporating travelers’ mode of choice and transport technological details was developed in this study. This AIM/Transport was coupled with the AIM/Computable General Equilibrium (AIM/CGE) to capture interactive mechanisms between the transport sector, energy consumption, greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions, and the macro-economy. This paper presents the model structure and mathematical formulation of AIM/Transport, and explains how it was integrated with the CGE model by an iterative algorithm, taking into consideration the feedback between AIM/Transport and AIM/CGE. A numerical simulation proved that the integration of AIM/CGE and AIM/Transport can achieve a convergence after 13 iterations. A business-as-usual (BaU) scenario and a mitigation scenario were created to test the robustness of the model integration and how the mitigation potential and cost would be modified by coupling AIM/Transport. The key finding was that the carbon price and mitigation cost were modified with the coupled CGE-Transport model.