برآورد مدل های تعادلی کلی با نوسانات احتمالی و تغییر پارامترها

This paper explores the importance of specification in estimated general equilibrium models with changing monetary policy parameters and stochastic volatility. Simulated data is used to estimate models with incorrectly specified exogenous shocks (time-varying vs. constant variance) and models misspecifying the way Taylor rule parameters change over time (constant vs. drifting vs. regime-switching). The model correctly identifies some changes in monetary policy parameters, even when misspecified. The inclusion of stochastic volatility greatly improves model fit even when the data is generated using constant variance exogenous shocks; this relationship is stronger in data generated from models with changing policy parameters.