تقاضای جهانی برای خدمات مالی چگونه رشد داخلی در لوکزامبورگ را افزایش می دهد؟ یک تجزیه و تحلیل تعادل عمومی پویا

This paper studies the transmission of a change in the global demand for financial services on the domestic growth of an international financial center. To capture most of the possible interactions, we develop a dynamic general equilibrium model that we calibrate on Luxembourg data. Results show that the financial multiplier (ratio of a change in output to a change in the financial sector value added) is above 2 in the medium run and largely above 1 in the long run. The main transmission channels are net exports (expenditure approach) or capital income (income approach) in the medium run and investment in the long run. Moreover, the global demand for financial services has substantial implications for public finances. These findings also mean that a sudden loss of confidence towards a specific international financial center might have dramatic consequences for its whole economy.