تجزیه و تحلیل تعادل عمومی اثر تنظیم اقتصاد کلان فقر در آفریقا

Using CGE models for four countries (Cameroon, The Gambia, Madagascar, and Niger), this paper examines the consequences of macropolicy reform on real incomes of poor households in sub-Saharan Africa. The simulations suggest that, compared to alternative policy options, trade and exchange rate liberalization tends to benefit poor households in both rural and urban areas—as rents on foreign exchange are eliminated, demand for labor increases, and returns to tradable agriculture rise. The small magnitudes of the gains in average real incomes of poor household groups modeled suggest that macropolicy reform alone will not be sufficient in the short run to significantly reduce poverty in Africa.

Has economic policy reform in sub-Saharan Africa worsened income distribution and exacerbated poverty? These questions remain the subject of considerable debate. Critics of the reform process argue that orthodox adjustment policies, including exchange rate devaluation and reduced government spending, have resulted in a disproportionately large burden for the poor Cornia, Jolly, Stewart 1987, Taylor 1988 and UNECA 1989. Other analysts of the adjustment process, while acknowledging that reforms have often failed to generate real economic growth,1 suggest that, in general, the poor (and especially the rural poor) marginally benefited from many adjustment measures World Bank 1994 and Sahn, Dorosh, and Younger 1996. In assessing the effects of reform on the poor, as well as other groups of households, it is crucial to separate the results of adjustment policy from the impacts of terms-of-trade shocks and other factors linked to the economic crises that necessitated adjustment measures. Therefore, in this paper we use computable general equilibrium models to simulate the effects of policy reform on real incomes of various household groups from four African countries: Cameroon, The Gambia, Madagascar, and Niger.2 We focus on two major broad types of adjustment policies—trade and exchange rate liberalization, and reductions in government spending—and present counterfactual simulations that elucidate important pathways by which policy reforms affect real incomes of poor households in the African context. As a prelude to the model simulations, we briefly discuss key aspects of the economic structures and adjustment processes in the four countries in Section 2. A brief description of the models follows in Section 3. Section 4 then presents the results of counterfactual simulations of alternative adjustment policies. Concluding remarks are in Section 5.

The impact of economic reforms on growth and income distribution has been one of the most keenly debated subjects of the past decade. The simulations presented above suggest a number of general conclusions relevant to this debate. First, the terms-of-trade shocks that were so pervasive in Africa-reduced real incomes for most household groups, especially the producers of commodities with falling world prices. The failure to reform policy and allow the exchange rate to adjust, but instead employ rationing and quotas to cope with imbalances in the external accounts, however, was to the clear detriment of the poor. The beneficiaries of maintaining an overvalued exchange rate and related policy distortions were the urban nonpoor. The political economy of distortions favoring the urban elite, the most influential interest group, without doubt explains why such policies prevailed for so long without being challenged, even in the face of obvious economic decline. Second, not only does the failure to reform policy have short-term negative effects on the income distribution, but in addition, there are long-term growth implications as well. Future growth may suffer because of the dramatic decline in aggregate savings and investment spending that follows from the imposition of import quotas in response to deteriorating external conditions, relative to the alternative approaches to adjustment. Third, at the margin, cutting government recurrent expenditures appears to be generally preferable to raising trade taxes for increasing the pool of savings and total investment, both in terms of efficiency and overall equity. Lower income urban groups, however, tend to suffer more through the cut in recurrent expenditures. Fourth, the models indicate that there is considerable latitude for achieving welfare objectives without compromising macrostability and long-term growth. For example, the continued availability of concessional financing is important to maintain aggregate incomes. However, efforts must be made to ensure that foreign borrowing is used in ways to limit adverse effects of appreciation of the real exchange rate. This includes channeling aid to meet the needs of the poor, directly raising consumption of, and investments in, the poor. Equally important is limiting the real appreciation itself through offsetting macroeconomic and trade policies, such as more rapid trade liberalization and greater fiscal restraint. By preventing a drop in the relative price of traded to non-traded goods, incentives for agricultural production can be maintained and rural incomes enhanced. In this way, incomes of small farmers will generally be shielded from adverse movements in relative prices. While avoiding appreciations of the real exchange rate is a very indirect way of affecting income distribution, it is potentially the most effective and most far-reaching economic policy for raising real incomes of the large numbers of poor in sub-Saharan Africa in the short to medium run. Fifth, the composition of investment goods, including human capital, is a critical determinant of the income distribution effects when total savings and investment in the economy change. In most countries, investment goods are predominantly imported or produced in urban areas, so that rural households enjoy little direct benefit from investment booms. Thus, greater consideration needs to be given to the destination of investment by sector, as well as the factor intensity of the production technology, which affects income distribution once the new capital is in place. Finally, the magnitude of the effects and the differential impact of policies on various income groups in the four countries illustrate the importance of proper country-specific policy analysis. Likewise, the indirect effects of certain policies often outweigh the direct, or expected, effects, further increasing the importance of examining policies in a general equilibrium framework.Dorosh Essama-Nssah 1991, Government of Madagascar 1993, International Monetary Fund IMF and Jabara Lundberg Jallow 1992