گذر به سمت یک اقتصاد کم کربن: تجزیه و تحلیل تعادل عمومی قابل محاسبه برای لهستان

In the transition to sustainable economic structures the European Union assumes a leading role with its climate and energy package which sets ambitious greenhouse gas emission reduction targets by 2020. Among EU Member States, Poland with its heavy energy system reliance on coal is particularly worried on the pending trade-offs between emission regulation and economic growth. In our computable general equilibrium analysis of the EU climate and energy package we show that economic adjustment cost for Poland hinge crucially on restrictions to where-flexibility of emission abatement, revenue recycling, and technological options in the power system. We conclude that more comprehensive flexibility provisions at the EU level and a diligent policy implementation at the national level could achieve the transition towards a low carbon economy at little cost thereby broadening societal support. Highlights ► Economic impact assessment of the EU climate and energy package for Poland. ► Sensitivity analysis on where-flexibility, revenue recycling and technology choice. ► Application of a hybrid bottom-up, top-down CGE model.

Between 1988 and 2005 Poland's transition to a market economy has been accompanied by a sharp decrease in CO2 emissions along with structural changes towards less energy-intensive production as well as overall energy efficiency improvements. However, a positive correlation between GDP and CO2 emissions has reemerged from 2005 onwards confronting Poland with a potential trade-off between CO2emission reduction and economic growth. While compliance to its reduction target under the Kyoto Protocol at the end of 2012 is ensured, the challenge comes along with Poland's new obligations under the ambitious EU climate and energy package which imposes an EU-wide emission decrease by 20% in 2020 compared to 2005 emission levels. Poland is among the Top-6 emitters within the European Union accounting for roughly 8% of EU-wide emissions over the last years. The per capita emissions are similar to the EU average, but given its low income level the Polish economy comes out as among the most emission-intensive. A distinctive feature of Poland's composition of CO2 emissions is the dominance of the power sector with an extraordinary dependence on coal. Around 85% of Poland's CO2 emissions stem from the energy sector, in particular electricity and heat production. More than 90% of electricity is generated by lignite-fired power plants which emit the highest levels of CO2 per unit of electricity across alternative fossil-fuel based power generation technologies—between two to three times as much as gas-fired plants. The heavy reliance of Polish industry and power stations on coal explains concerns in Poland that stringent CO2 emission constraints as put forward by the EU energy and climate package will not only boost domestic electricity prices but also negatively affect competitiveness and overall economic performance. How costly will it be for Poland to move to a lower carbon path? Will Poland be more burdened than the rest of the EU? How will alternative strategies to achieve the EU's emission reduction targets up to 2020 affect the magnitude and distribution of economic adjustment cost? To gain insights in these questions we make use of a computable general equilibrium (CGE) model that incorporates key determinants of economic impacts triggered by emission regulation. In our numerical simulations we find that compliance to the energy and climate package induces sizeable economic cost for Poland (up to a loss in real income of roughly 1% compared to a business-as-usual situation without emission regulation) that are markedly higher than for the rest of the EU. The adjustment cost for the transition to a lower carbon economy, however, could be reduced substantially through amendments of emission regulation at the superordinate EU level as well as the cost-effective policy implementation at the Member State level. At the superordinate EU level, comprehensive EU-wide emissions trading and in particular the relaxation of supplementarity constraints for the use of the Clean Development Mechanism (CDM) would allow for substantial cost savings. At the Member State level, revenue recycling of regulatory rents through wage subsidies (instead of lump-sum rebates or free allowance allocation to emission-intensive and trade-exposed industries) provides scope for a double dividend, i.e., a reduction of emissions together with reduced unemployment (and a reduction of Poland's compliance cost by two third). Relaxing expansion constraints on nuclear power is found to cut compliance cost for Poland by about one third. This paper adds a country study for Poland to the applied economic literature on impact assessment of the EU climate and energy package. The specific methodological contribution of our CGE analysis is the focus on economic adjustment of a single EU country—in this case Poland—while accounting for important international spillovers of policy regulation through a multi-region (global) setting.1 Furthermore, our economic impact assessment for Poland exemplifies the critical importance of where-flexibility in emission abatement, revenue recycling, and technology constraints in the electricity sector for the magnitude of economic adjustment cost towards a low carbon economy. The remainder of this article is organized as follows. Section 2 presents the computable general equilibrium model underlying our quantitative analysis of emission regulation in Poland and the EU. Section 3 lays out alternative policy scenarios to meet the emission reduction commitments under the EU climate and energy package. Section 4 presents a discussion of the simulation results. Section 5 summarizes and concludes.

In the battle against climate change the EU has taken a proactive stance with stringent emission reduction targets for 2020. Among EU Member States, Poland with its heavy energy system reliance on coal is particularly concerned on the pending trade-offs between CO2 emission constraints and economic growth. Our impact assessment of climate policy for Poland and the rest of the EU supports these concerns as Poland suffers from a sizeable loss in real income (around 1% compared to a business-as-usual situation without emission regulation) which is two times higher than for the rest of the EU. However, our simulation results also indicate that increased where-flexibility of emission abatement could substantially reduce the cost of decarbonization. Deliberate revenue recycling provides another option for larger alleviations of the economic burden triggered by carbon emission constraint: if CO2 emission rents are recycled through cuts in labor cost Poland and the rest of the EU may even reap a double dividend, i.e., a reduction of emissions together with a reduction of unemployment. Climate policies that renounce on “smart” recycling as they stick to lump-sum transfers or free allowance allocation can turn out quite costly. Beyond where-flexibility and revenue recycling technological options in electricity generation which accounts for most of the CO2 emissions particularly in Poland but also in the rest of the EU are of critical importance for the adjustment cost to emission constraints. Restrictions to nuclear power or gas imports can induce significant additional cost of emission reduction which must be traded off against other policy objectives or societal preferences such as technology-specific risk aversion or energy security. We conclude that more comprehensive flexibility provisions at the superordinate EU level and a diligent policy implementation at the national level could achieve Poland's transition towards a low carbon economy at relatively modest economic cost thereby broadening societal support for ambitious EU climate policy targets.