معیار بازپرداخت سرمایه گذاری در انرژی هسته ای

The investment risk assessment results obtained by Monte-Carlo method are presented in order to account for the inherent uncertainties in the forecasts of long-term cash flow during the NPP construction and operation required for assessing the efficiency of investments. The calculation results of probability distributions of the investment efficiency (profitability) criteria are presented for the specified ranges of uncertainties the forecasted cash flow. It is shown that the risk of project unprofitability can be quite high. In order to reduce investment risks, it is necessary to justify the changes in basic reactor parameters (decrease in K, Y, TC and increase in R and TE) and uncertainty ranges in the initial data.