شیوع فقر کالیفرنیا توسط بخشی از جمعیت

This research note accomplishes two goals. The first is to create smoothed rates of annual poverty for the state of California for the years 1959 through 2000. These estimates are benchmarked and linked to the decennial censuses. Separate time-series estimates and projections are made for all state residents and for six separate subpopulations—whites, blacks, Hispanics, female-headed householders, the elderly, and children. The overall trend in the poverty rate within California is projected to rise, primarily due to the increasing Hispanic population. After the first goal is attained, a suggestion is then made to supplement the current definition of business cycles with the disparity between the long-run trend in the overall poverty rate and the actual annual rates. The degree of divergence between the two series would indicate either the severity of an economic downturn or the extent of prosperity.