نقص آزاد حرفه ای امید به زندگی در بلغارستان 1976-1992 بر اساس داده های کمیسیون کارشناس پزشکی

This article presents health expectancy calculations from Bulgaria for 1976–1992. The calculations are based on mortality statistics and data from a national information system from the Expert Medical Commissions on Working Capacity about loss of working capacity. Following internationally accepted terminology, the most appropriate term for the health expectancies presented here is ‘occupational handicap-free life expectancy’ (OHFLE). Life expectancies were calculated as partial life expectancies from ages 16 to 59. Health expectancy calculations followed Sullivan's cross-sectional method with age and sex specific prevalence data on occupational handicap. Around 1985 a three- to four-fold increase in these prevalences occurred. The distribution of occupational handicaps over sexes, age groups and severity levels, however, remained fairly constant. The results show a decrease both in partial life expectancy within the age range 16–59 and in OHFLE at the age of 16 for men. For women a more or less stable partial life expectancy and a decrease in OHFLE at the age of 16 was found around 1985. The introduction of more incentives for people who successfully registered probably caused the decrease around 1985. Major social changes may have acted as confounding factors for the fluctuations after 1985. On the other hand the findings may reflect real changes in population health due to an increasing incidence in some major disease categories. The nation-wide system for assessment and registration of health related working incapacity has proved a useful source for an attempt to calculate OHFLE. Given uncertainties about the population health underlying these changes in OHFLE, however, it is recommended that health interview and health examination surveys should be considered as alternative routes for achieving a more comprehensive picture of population health in Bulgaria.