دانلود مقاله ISI انگلیسی شماره 124519
ترجمه فارسی عنوان مقاله

در انتخابات مجلس ملی کره جنوبی ضعف احتمالی: شواهد از یک روش انحطاط رگرسیون

عنوان انگلیسی
The incumbency disadvantage in South Korean National Assembly elections: Evidence from a regression discontinuity approach
کد مقاله سال انتشار تعداد صفحات مقاله انگلیسی
124519 2017 39 صفحه PDF
منبع

Publisher : Elsevier - Science Direct (الزویر - ساینس دایرکت)

Journal : Electoral Studies, Volume 46, April 2017, Pages 112-122

ترجمه کلمات کلیدی
کره جنوبی، انتخابات مسئولیت پذیری، طراحی مجدد رگرسیون،
کلمات کلیدی انگلیسی
South Korea; Elections; Incumbency; Regression discontinuity design;
پیش نمایش مقاله
پیش نمایش مقاله  در انتخابات مجلس ملی کره جنوبی ضعف احتمالی: شواهد از یک روش انحطاط رگرسیون

چکیده انگلیسی

In marked contrast to the findings from advanced democracies that incumbent office holders enjoy electoral advantages, this study finds that a substantial incumbency disadvantage exists in South Korean National Assembly (KNA) elections. I employ a quasi-experimental regression discontinuity design to distinguish the true effects of incumbency from the selection effects associated with candidate qualities, such as charisma and ability levels. My results show that serving a term in office reduces the probability of winning by around 20–30 percentage points and reduces the vote share by about 3–7 percentage points. Possible reasons for the incumbency disadvantage are briefly discussed, with an emphasis on the particularly high level of public discontent with governing elites in the KNA due to what voters perceive to be their widespread corruption.