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Using archival data for a sample of U.S. presidents, evidence was found for a honeymoon and hangover effect in approval ratings over time. That is, presidential approval tended to be high early in the president's term and decrease over time. The effect of time on approval persisted even when military and economic indicators were included as predictors of presidential approval. More importantly, the effect of time on approval was moderated by charisma, such that charismatic leaders better maintained their approval rating over time. We take this as evidence that the honeymoon/hangover effect on presidential approval is substantively meaningful from a psychological perspective.

Approval for U.S. presidents tends to start high and decline over the course of the president's term (e.g., Eichenberg, Stoll, & Lebo, 2006). However, the importance of the effect of time-in-office on approval rating has been called into question (Kernell, 1978). In this article we contend that the honeymoon/hangover effect (HHE) characteristic of U.S. presidential approval rates is a meaningful phenomenon resulting from psychological processes. To test this assertion, first we statistically controlled for alternative sources of variance in presidential approval, including military spending, inflation, and unemployment. Second, we went beyond showing that the time effects persist in the presence of statistical controls by actually predicting the nature of these trends for different presidents. Drawing on the theory of transformational leadership (Bass, 1985) we predicted that highly charismatic presidents would experience less of a drop in approval over their time in office compared to their less charismatic counterparts.