فرهنگ امنیت 2030. چگونه کارشناسان امنیتی دولت آینده خصوصی سازی، نظارت، فن آوری های امنیتی و آگاهی ریسک در آلمان را ارزیابی می کنند

This paper presents results from a two-round expert Delphi (N1 = 227, N2 = 126) realized in 2014 which focused on potential security related developments in Germany in the year 2030. Experts from politics, social and natural sciences, economy and end-users assessed the probability and desirability of diverse future developments such as privatization, surveillance, technological vulnerabilities and risk awareness. The data revealed discrepancies between the estimated probability and the attributed desirability of certain developments. Additionally, qualitative expert statements were analyzed in order to capture the latent structures behind the expert ratings. In terms of issues that are rated probable but undesirable, technological and economic factors dominate while more desirable but rather improbable future developments mainly concern political and social aspects of security. Furthermore, group differences between the experts are reported.