ابهام در مقابل خطر: یک مطالعه تجربی از اعتماد به نفس کاذب، جنسیت و فعالیت های تجاری

In this paper, we investigate the effect of overconfidence and gender on trading activity in experimental asset markets under a symmetric information setting. We measure the degree of overconfidence in three forms—miscalibration, a better-than-average effect, and the illusion of control, and design two treatments (Ambiguity and Risk) that differ by the prior information available about the distribution of the dividend in the asset market. Our results indicate that traders who think they are on average better in terms of trading ability trade more only in the Ambiguity Treatment where prior information about the distribution is omitted. Males also have a higher degree of overconfidence in the better-than-average effect and trade significantly more than females in the Ambiguity Treatment. Both overconfidence and gender do not appear to play a role in increasing trading volume in the Risk Treatment including information on distribution.