دانلود مقاله ISI انگلیسی شماره 74255
ترجمه فارسی عنوان مقاله

اطمینان و اعتماد به نفس کاذب در تنظیمات آینده برای مواد غذایی

عنوان انگلیسی
Certainty and overconfidence in future preferences for food
کد مقاله سال انتشار تعداد صفحات مقاله انگلیسی
74255 2015 13 صفحه PDF
منبع

Publisher : Elsevier - Science Direct (الزویر - ساینس دایرکت)

Journal : Journal of Economic Psychology, Volume 51, December 2015, Pages 101–113

ترجمه کلمات کلیدی
عدم اطمینان اولویت؛ اعتماد به نفس کاذب؛ آزمایش؛ تنظیمات آینده
کلمات کلیدی انگلیسی
D83; D843920Preference uncertainty; Overconfidence; Experiment; Future preferences
پیش نمایش مقاله
پیش نمایش مقاله  اطمینان و اعتماد به نفس کاذب در تنظیمات آینده برای مواد غذایی

چکیده انگلیسی

We examine consumer certainty of future preferences and overconfidence in predicting future preferences. We explore how preference certainty and overconfidence impact the option value to revise today’s decisions in the future. We design a laboratory experiment that creates a controlled choice environment, in which a subject’s choice set (over food snacks) is known and constant over time, and the time frame is short – subjects make choices for themselves today, and for one to two weeks ahead. Our results suggest that even for such a seemingly straightforward choice task, only 45% of subjects can predict future choices accurately, while stated certainty of future preferences (one and two weeks ahead) is around 80%. We define overconfidence in predicting future preferences as: the difference between actual accuracy at predicting future choices and stated certainty of future preferences. Our results suggest strong evidence of overconfidence. We find that overconfidence increases with the level of stated certainty of future preferences. Finally, we observe that the option value people attach to future choice flexibility decreases with overconfidence. Overconfidence in future preferences affects economic welfare because it says people have too much incentive to lock themselves into future suboptimal decisions.