پویایی اعتماد به نفس کاذب: شواهدی از پیش بینی بازار سهام

As a group, market forecasters are overconfident in the sense that they are miscalibrated. While overconfidence is persistent, respondents do exhibit some degree of rational learning in that they widen confidence intervals after failure as much as they narrow them after success. Market experience exacerbates overconfidence, primarily through knowledge deterioration.