پتانسیل کاهش هزینه های نیروگاه های خورشیدی متمرکز در هند به وسیله پارابولیک

In this paper, we estimate the cost reduction potential of parabolic trough based concentrated solar Power systems in India and consequently their implications for levelized cost of electricity. Using the past as well as envisaged global cumulative diffusion of CSP systems and the learning rates reported in the literature, the expected capital cost of parabolic trough based CSP systems in India has been estimated. Present capital cost of parabolic trough based CSP plant in India has been taken as US $2540/kW. Local manufacturing of CSP components and consequently reduced logistics is expected to reduce the capital cost by 14% and 8% respectively. A learning rate of 10% for the global cumulative diffusion in the base case scenario is expected to reduce capital cost to 49% of the present cost by the end of 2050. Present LCOE of US $151/MWh of CSP plant in India is expected to reduce to US $76/MWh by the end of 2050. Provision of 6 hour thermal storage is expected to reduce LCOE of CSP plant in India by 18% as compared to LCOE of CSP plant without storage. Analysis for different learning rates (5%, 10% and 15%) for CSP plant and different discount rates (6%, 8% and 10%) has also been undertaken and results obtained are presented.