دانلود مقاله ISI انگلیسی شماره 137151
ترجمه فارسی عنوان مقاله

آیا پیش بینی های چگالی اقتصاد کلان مفید هستند؟

عنوان انگلیسی
Are macroeconomic density forecasts informative?
کد مقاله سال انتشار تعداد صفحات مقاله انگلیسی
137151 2018 18 صفحه PDF
منبع

Publisher : Elsevier - Science Direct (الزویر - ساینس دایرکت)

Journal : International Journal of Forecasting, Volume 34, Issue 2, April–June 2018, Pages 181-198

پیش نمایش مقاله
پیش نمایش مقاله  آیا پیش بینی های چگالی اقتصاد کلان مفید هستند؟

چکیده انگلیسی

We consider whether survey density forecasts (such as the inflation and output growth histograms of the US Survey of Professional Forecasters) are superior to unconditional density forecasts. The unconditional forecasts assume that the average level of uncertainty that has been experienced in the past will continue to prevail in the future, whereas the SPF projections ought to be adapted to the current conditions and the outlook at each forecast origin. The SPF forecasts might be expected to outperform the unconditional densities at the shortest horizons, but it transpires that such is not the case for the aggregate forecasts of either variable, or for the majority of the individual respondents for forecasting inflation.