مدل ترکیبی برای سازگاری با تغییرات آب و هوایی در بخش کشاورزی: ​​مطالعه موردی برای مزارع شراب ایتالیایی

The negative effects of climate change are predicted to impact the agricultural sector in coming decades. Economic losses and modifications of production processes are fundamental issues to consider in coping with the harmful consequences of climate variability. The literature and empirical evidence show that the wine sector is extremely vulnerable to this risk. These studies show that this sector lacks appropriate adaptation strategies due to the complexity of the analysed systems and interrelations between a number of socio-economic and environmental variables. The present study designed a decision support system to identify adaptation strategies for wine farms undergoing climate change. The tool allows for the analysis of a wine farm's economic performance when it adopts measures to cope with climatic variability. Average values for climate change and extreme events were considered to assess different scenarios. A mix-method approach was applied to integrate probability calculations, complex system analyses and operational research (a metaheuristic approach). The model was tested on a case study located in central Italy (Chianti Classico). To maintain and improve future financial performance, organic farming and adjustments to procedural guidelines were recommended as key strategies. Economic variables, such as the average price of wine, seem to have a strong influence on farms' implementation of adaptive measures. An additional result seems to suggest that insurance schemes in areas producing high quality wine are only suitable when low-level deductibles and public funding are available. The present work shows that the decision support system favours analytical sensitivity to different scenarios and variables related to climate change as well as to socio-economic shifts in the viticulture sector.