دانلود مقاله ISI انگلیسی شماره 142756
ترجمه فارسی عنوان مقاله

پیش بینی استقرار فتوولتائیک خورشیدی مسکونی در کالیفرنیا

عنوان انگلیسی
Forecasting residential solar photovoltaic deployment in California
کد مقاله سال انتشار تعداد صفحات مقاله انگلیسی
142756 2017 15 صفحه PDF
منبع

Publisher : Elsevier - Science Direct (الزویر - ساینس دایرکت)

Journal : Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Volume 117, April 2017, Pages 251-265

پیش نمایش مقاله
پیش نمایش مقاله  پیش بینی استقرار فتوولتائیک خورشیدی مسکونی در کالیفرنیا

چکیده انگلیسی

Residential distributed photovoltaic (PV) deployment in the United States has experienced robust growth, and policy changes impacting the value of solar are likely to occur at the federal and state levels. To establish a credible baseline and evaluate impacts of potential new policies, this analysis employs multiple methods to forecast residential PV deployment in California, including a time-series forecasting model, a threshold heterogeneity diffusion model, a Bass diffusion model, and National Renewable Energy Laboratory's dSolar model. As a baseline, the residential PV market in California is modeled to peak in the early 2020s, with a peak annual installation of 1.5–2 GW across models. We then use the baseline results from the dSolar model and the threshold model to gauge the impact of the recent federal investment tax credit (ITC) extension, the newly approved California net energy metering (NEM) policy, and a hypothetical value-of-solar (VOS) compensation scheme. We find that the recent ITC extension may increase annual PV installations by 12%–18% (roughly 500 MW) for the California residential sector in 2019–2020. The new NEM policy only has a negligible effect in California due to the relatively small new charges (< 100 MW in 2019–2020). Furthermore, impacts of the VOS compensation scheme ($0.12 per kilowatt-hour) are larger, reducing annual PV adoption by 32% (or 900–1300 MW) in 2019–2020.