یک مدل گاز و برق یکپارچه از سیستم انرژی اتحادیه اروپا برای بررسی وقفه های عرضه

The EU dependence on imported gas is increasing, rising to 67% in the year 2014 with 30% of total gas consumption used for electricity generation that year. With such a dependence on imported gas, gas supply interruptions can have significant impacts on the EU energy system and economy. This points to the need for integrated electricity and gas modelling tools to fully explore the potential impacts of gas supply interruptions. This paper builds and applies a detailed publically available integrated electricity and gas model for the EU-28. We use this model to examine a number of hypothetical scenarios where gas supply routes are interrupted for yearly periods and the impacts on power system operation and gas flow in Europe observed. Model results show that interruption of Russian gas supply to the EU could lead to a rise in average gas prices of 28% and 12% in electricity prices. When supply from North Africa was removed all Southern European states were affected heavily, Spain in particular saw large increases of 30% in gas prices with a corresponding rise of 18% in electricity prices as a result. In addition to supply interruptions, all gas storages were removed from the model to examine the importance of gas storage infrastructure. This resulted in an average increase in power prices of 6% across Europe. These additional insights offer an increased understanding of the interplay between the gas and power systems and identify challenges which may arise when seeking to understand energy systems as a whole.