سرمایه گذاری بین المللی در خدمات مالی

This paper analyzes and models the significant components of international trade in financial services, namely, foreign direct investment in banking for the US, the UK and Germany. It distinguishes between banks' activities abroad and FDI in banking by banks and non-banks. A model for FDI in banking is proposed which contains certain explanatory variables peculiar to FDI in banking as compared to FDI in manufacturing. The components of the model of FDI in banking is different from those models designed to explain banks activities abroad. The empirical results of this study of FDI in banking indicate that bilateral trade, banks' foreign assets, the cost of capital, relative economic growth, exchange rates and FDI in non-finance industries are the major determinants of foreign investment in banking.

According to the UN World Investment Report (1994), world-wide flows of foreign direct investment (FDI) have grown at unprecedented rates, to reach a total outflow of $225 billion in 1990 (from an outward stock of $1.7 trillion). The average annual growth rate of FDI has been high between 1987 and 1997 and this growth far exceeded that of merchandise exports and nominal GDP. One of the major categories of US FDI abroad is FDI in banking. US FDI in banking has increased fivefold over the period 1983–1997. Statistical data also show that German FDI in banking has increased over fivefold during the period 1983–1997, while UK FDI in banking has more than tripled during the same period of time.1 It is worth noting that for all three countries Europe remains a primary host for foreign banking expansion, whilst Japan remains relatively closed. In fact, apart from the continued growth in the number of foreign banks in Hong Kong and Singapore, Asia still lags behind the developing countries of Latin America as host countries for FDI in banking. This can be attributed to the delayed and incomplete approach many of the Asian nations are taking toward financial deregulation.

This paper has distinguished between banks' activities abroad and FDI in banking by banks and non-banks. It has argued that the number of offices owned by banks abroad may correlate to the amount of FDI in banking, however, it does not include investment by banks who invest in incorporated foreign banks. Furthermore, there are non-bank investors who own over 10% of some banks in foreign countries, and yet neither the number of offices owned by banks nor the total assets of banks' branches in foreign countries fully reflect the amount of FDI in banking. A model for FDI in banking has been proposed which comprises certain explanatory variables peculiar to FDI in banking as compared to FDI in general and/or FDI in manufacturing for the US, the UK and Germany. The components of the model of FDI in banking is different from those models designed to explain banks activities abroad. The empirical results of this study of FDI in banking indicate that banks' foreign assets contribute to the expansion of FDI in banking by both banks and non-bank investors. This result indicates that while banks could be engaged in international lending activities from their home countries, access to foreign markets is a very effective way of expanding their international activities. The empirical results also show a close link between FDI in banking and FDI in non-finance sector as well as between bi-lateral trade. The empirical results support the theoretical argument that those countries with better cost of capital structures, which have stronger financial positions when competing with the host countries' banks. Furthermore, this paper has shown that if the economic growth in the US, the UK and Germany increases faster than that of their host countries, investors of these three countries tend to invest more in their own countries rather than in the banking sector of the foreign countries. The exchange rate appears to be one of the decisive factors in expanding FDI in banking. As currencies appreciate, there is less incentive for investment in the foreign banking market. This result implies that both bank and non-bank investors have a long term view of investment in banking and hence they are not motivated for short term profits.