پویایی پولی در تورم یوگسلاوی در سالهای 1991-1993: تقاضای عقلائی پول

The Yugoslav hyperinflation of 1991–1993 is one of the highest and the longest episodes ever recorded. The monetary dynamics of the hyperinflation is well characterized by the Cagan model. With revealed cointegration between real money and inflation, the model is accepted irrespective of the underlying expectations formation process and it implies stationary velocity shocks. Employing cointegrated VAR, the exact rational expectations Cagan model is rejected and an informal test within the same framework shows that the Yugoslav public exhibited a lower degree of forward-looking behavior relative to that in other classical hyperinflations. This enabled the government to extract non-decreasing seigniorage by increasing money growth and inflation above expected rates and suggests an explanation for the ever-increasing money growth in spite of the resulting monetary chaos.