اسپرد اعتباری کل و چرخه کسب و کار

An empirical investigation of the credit spread between yields on corporate and treasury bonds shows that it is closely related to macroeconomic fluctuations. The spread behaves counter-cyclically, that is, it narrows during business cycle expansions and widens during contractions. The results also show that the credit spread is a leading indicator of macroeconomic business conditions and turning points in the credit spread can anticipate business cycle turning points.