پیش بینی ورشکستگی در شرکت ها با روش های آماری و هوشمند و مقایسه روش های محاسبات تکاملی

This paper makes four critical contributions: (1) with nearly 80% fewer financial ratios by the PCA method, the prediction performance is still able to provide highly-accurate forecasts of financial bankruptcy; (2) we show that traditional statistical methods are better able to handle large datasets without sacrificing prediction performance, while intelligent techniques achieve better performance with smaller datasets and would be adversely affected by huge datasets; (3) empirical results show that C5.0 and CART provide the best prediction performance for imminent bankruptcies; and (4) Support Vector Machines (SVMs) with evolutionary computation provide a good balance of high-accuracy short- and long-term performance predictions for healthy and distressed firms. Therefore, the experimental results show that the Particle Swarm Optimization (PSO) integrated with SVM (PSO–SVM) approach could be considered for predicting potential financial distress.